Paper Chase: Millennial Investing
Middle east tension has resulted in rising oil prices with crude reaching their highest levels.
Retail sales rose 4.3% which was lower than what economists expected. It’s an important number for it tells us about demand of consumers who make up 2/3 of the economy.
Tesla has made their patents available for free siting the want to help advance electric vehicle technology. Zero emission electric cars are less than 1% of auto sales.
You’re No Worse Than The Best
The average stock picker or even active manager does not beat the market. We are not good at predicting the future, and we have found out that it is hard to understand the past well. We do know that dollar cost averaging and allocation are much better than speculation and timing the market
While I am very pro-market, I am even more anti-stupidity. It’s easy to get caught up in the belief that we can all be better than the market generally, or the people that we happen to know or what x told us about happens to be better than the market.
The three hardest words for many in the English language are “I Don’t Know”, and a perfect example of this is so-called clairvoyance in what will happen with oil prices relating to the tension in Iraq. Geopolitics and commodities prices are two of the most unpredictable realms in our society.
Think Like A Freak
How do we make the decisions we do? What are the causes of our behaviors? How can we think more productively, creatively and rationally?
In his book Think like A Freak, Stephen J. Dubner offers a series of principles that can help anyone in any setting personal or business. This includes things like saying I don’t know, putting away your moral compass (thinking like a child), asking the right question, thinking small, appreciating quitting (upside to opportunity cost and downside to sunk cost, job, strategy, relationship), and the art of persuasion.
Try Try Again
Failure can be a good thing, but it is often stigmatized as pure loss causing it to be avoided to the point that even if we think we are failing, we won’t quit because we feel not quitting is the morally the right thing to do. This is everybody, and it may indeed be the case as there exists no algorithm that tells us when to quit.
A Babe In The Woods
The brain of a child is more plastic resulting in them having better perception. The human brain is at peak power from ages 14 through 24. The rest of us are on the slow decline.
Like a child, it’s still beneficial to make obvious observations that are not sophisticated. It’s ok to be excited about things that really excite you. It’s hard to solve problems with a dutiful demeanor as if they are big and serious where the only way to solve them involves everything aligning. Adulthood is profiting from wisdom and experience in order to bullshit. Children will call out the emperor when he has no clothes.
Frequent flyer programs originated to keep people loyal to one airline and away from flying many airlines have become obsolete. Airplanes are all full so now only top flyers will get relief from inconveniences.
The economy of air transportation do not work for small community in point to point service unless as a connecting hub. Programs “rewarding” flyers are like union cards to earn to not get non perks. Airlines want you to show loyalty or they will make you unhappy while flying. Programs now are about not getting demerits as opposed to gaining perks. Programs now are designed for the business traveler to get to their seat early and maybe get some extra leg room.
Smaller cities and airports can forget about making air travel viable for them. While consultants have had a field day, it’s done.
Economics of Air Transportation
Airlines are no longer chasing volume. They are now chasing revenue. This means they will give up market share if they have to for it’s not about more people but more money. There is almost no growth in traffic for no more seats. There are no dumb competitors in this industry any more. A lot of applications where air transportation used to make money, it can not any longer which means that while we will be connecting more, we will have better access.
Middle east turmoil may cause jack up airline prices as no airplane flying today thought oil would be 50 let alone $100 per barrel when designed. We are in a different system, we all must adjust, less flying to small and mid, less reach
For the first time in 67 years, there are more 18-33 year olds (millennials) than 50-68 (baby-boomers). The recession’s effects on their parents and grandparents has certainly impacted millenials on saving for retirement. They have seen what happened to their parents, and don’t want to repeat it. They have been shaped by volatility and downturn in the economy constraining their job prospects and earnings.
What Millenials Are Doing
The good news is that millennial investors are setting financial goals, saving more consistently, and seem to be more conservative with their investments. Unfortunately, this conservative mindset have left them overwighted in cash, skeptical about long term investments, and getting financial advice from friends and family instead of professionals.
What Everyone Can Learn From Millenials
Having a plan is critical to financial success. If you haven’t, it’s imperative that you start saving early for retirement as well as other goals. Millenials are also realistic about work and life. No one is thinking about retiring at 62 and living off of Social Security. We all know that’s a pipe dream. Millenials are looking for careers that they want to work in until they are 70 or older.