Obamacare Now, Obamacare Tomorrow, Obamacare Forever
Obama’s signature health care legislation has seemingly survived for the near future.
To recap where we are in the fight against Obamacare, The law was passed on a procedural basis, thanks to Scott Brown, by procedure. It could not be stopped.
Republicans elected a House Majority to stop it in 2010. They unsuccessfully tried to stop it.
Republicans elected a greater House Majority and took the Senate, but voted to fund it before even trying to halfheartedly say they were going to fight it.
There have been two Supreme Court cases ruling that Obamacare is constitutional as a tax, and subsidies apply to those on state and federal exchanges. At what point does the opposition admit it has lost? Why not work to improve the president’s signature healthcare law instead of fruitlessly fighting to repeal it?
A fair percentage of those opposed are because they don’t think it’s liberal enough. If you put “repeal Obamacare, revert to pre-Obamacare status quo” on a ballot tomorrow, does anyone not think it would not fail? I don’t think it would even be close.
Obamacare Is Here To Stay
Chief Justice Roberts specifically stated that agency does not give the authority to change the interpretation. Only the Court decides what statutes mean. If you recall the oral argument, he asked only one question, and it was regarding whether the next President would be able to change the interpretation. Now we understand why.
Because of the Senate, it does not matter who the next President is for there is simply no path to repealing ObamaCare during the next President’s term.
In 2016, only 10 Democrats are up for reelection in the Senate with 8 in “safe seats”. Conversely, there are 24 Republicans up for reelection with 10 safe. Even if Republicans retain control of the Senate with a bare majority of 51 or 52, to pass a repeal in regular order, there need to be at least 60 Republicans (assuming all Democrats hold firm for ObamaCare as they have been).
Socialized medicine has been a progressive dream for since at least Teddy Roosevelt, and they will not let go of a goal that took them 100 years to realize, no matter the political cost. To repeal by reconciliation, Republicans will need 51 Senators but some in Blue States will defect so the actual number is more like 56 . I don’t think it’s gonna happen. In 2018, things only get worse because Presidents invariably face a Midterm backlash, and the possibility of recession is not minimal. Taking people’s subsidies away is not politically palatable.
