Nevada Proves Indeed To Be Hillary’s Firewall
Hillary won the Nevada caucuses over Bernie Sanders by approximately 6 points. She won Clark County, Nevada’s most diverse county, by 10 points. She also won heavily Latino East Las Vegas, calling into question the entrance-exit poll which showed Sanders leading by eight points among Hispanic voters.
The poll had just 1,024 voters making it hard to measure such a small subgroup. Hispanic voters are generally heavily concentrated in small areas, and these polls are conducted at individual precincts. If the precincts, simply by chance, are off, then the results for a small subgroup can also be off.
This is how exit polls showed George W. Bush winning 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004. Merely by chance, 3 of the 11 predominately Hispanic precincts were in heavily Republican Miami-Dade County. (The best estimate is that Mr. Bush actually won 40 percent of the vote, based on a compilation of the 50 state exit polls.) The danger is even greater with a poll of the size today. More generally, the entrance-exit poll showed Hillary and Bernie in a virtually tied race, so we know that the poll understated Mrs. Clinton’s support somewhere.
The results by precinct also indicate that Mrs. Clinton fared extremely well among black voters. In six precincts identified as majority black by the New York Times, Mrs. Clinton won the delegate count by a staggering 96-7. The entrance-exit poll showed with her with a 76-22 percentage advantage among African-Americans.
I think the Democratic nomination was secured tonight by Hillary. She is way ahead of Bernie in upcoming southern states, and as Super Tuesday approaches, I don’t think Bernie will have enough time to introduce himself to an electorate that he is largely unfamiliar with him. Nevada was an electorate that would presumably favor Sanders similar to Iowa and New Hampshire because of a larger share of white voters. Losing two of those three states is ominous for his campaign that has had a tough time expanding beyond people under 40 and into minorities.