If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 9/26/21

Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 9/26/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.

Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”

Mike was an impressive 27-20 (.574, +185 units) last week. Kwaisi was an unimpressive 12-25 (.324, -1505 units)

Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.

2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.

If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.

Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.

Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.

You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.

If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.

All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.

9/23/21 – 8:20 pm: Carolina (-7.5, -370, 43.5) at Houston (+300)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Carolina
• Rush attempts: Houston
• Td per pass attempt: Carolina
• Pass yds/att: Carolina
• Point Differential: Carolina
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Carolina
• Turnover margin: Houston
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Houston
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick: Houston +7.5; Carolina -370, under 43.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Carolina -7.5; Carolina -370, under 43.5

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Washington (+9, +315, 45.5) at Buffalo (-385)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Buffalo
• Rush attempts: Buffalo
• Td per pass attempt: Washington
• Pass yds/att: Washington
• Point Differential: Buffalo
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Washington
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: —
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Washington +9, over 45.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Washington +9, Buffalo -385, under 45.5

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Chicago (+7, +260, 46.5) at Cleveland (-310)

• Rush attempts: —
• Td per pass attempt: Cleveland
• Pass yds/att: Cleveland
• Point Differential: Cleveland
• Rush Yds Allowed: Chicago
• Turnover margin: Chicago
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cleveland
• Record in close games: Chicago

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Chicago +7, under 46.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Cleveland -7, Cleveland -310, under 46.5

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Baltimore (-8, -375, 49.5) at Detroit (+305)

• Rush attempts: Baltimore
• Td per pass attempt: Detroit
• Pass yds/att: Baltimore
• Point Differential: Baltimore
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Baltimore
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Detroit
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick: Detroit +8; Baltimore -375, over 49.5

Mike’s Pick: Baltimore -8, Baltimore -375, over 49.5

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Arizona (-7.5, -355, 52) at Jacksonville (+285)

• Rush attempts: Arizona
• Td per pass attempt: Arizona
• Pass yds/att: Arizona
• Point Differential: Arizona
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Jacksonville
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
• Turnover margin: Arizona
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick: Arizona -7.5; Arizona -355, over 52

Mike’s Picks: Arizona -7.5; Arizona -355, over 52

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5, -250, 56) at Kansas City (-300)

• Rush attempts: Chargers
• Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
• Pass yds/att: Kansas City
• Point Differential: Kansas City
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Kansas City
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Chargers
• Turnover margin: Kansas City
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Kansas City
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Chargers +6.5; Kansas City -300, over 56

Mike’s Pick(s): Kansas City -6.5; Kansas City -300, over 56

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: New Orleans (+3, +130, 41.5) at New England (-150)

• Rush attempts: New Orleans
• Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
• Pass yds/att: New England
• Point Differential: New England
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New England
• Rushing yds allowed/gm: New Orleans
• Turnover margin: New England
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New England -150, under 41.5

Mike’s Pick(s): New England -3, New England -150, under 41.5

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Atlanta (+3, +135, 48) at New York Giants (-155)

• Rush attempts: Giants
• Td per pass attempt: Giants
• Pass yds/att: Giants
• Point Differential: Giants
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Giants
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Giants
• Turnover margin: Giants
• Fumble Recovery Rate: —
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Giants -3; Giants -155, over 48

Mike’s Pick(s): Giants -3; Giants -155, under 48

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Cincinnati (+3, +150, 43.5) at Pittsburgh (-170)

• Rush attempts: Cincinnati
• Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
• Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
• Point Differential: Cincinnati
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Pittsburgh
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
• Turnover margin: Pittsburgh
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Pittsburgh
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cincinnati +3, over 43.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Pittsburgh -3, Pittsburgh -170, over 43.5

9/26/21 – 1:00 pm: Indianapolis (+5, +215, 48) at Tennessee (-255)

• Rush attempts: Tennessee
• Td per pass attempt: n/a
• Pass yds/att: n/a
• Point Differential: Indianapolis
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Indianapolis
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Tennessee
• Turnover margin: Indianapolis
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
• Record in close games: Tennessee

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Indianapolis +5, under 48

Mike’s Pick(s): Tennessee -5, Tennessee -255, under 48

9/26/21 – 4:05 pm: New York Jets (+10.5, +460, 41) at Denver (-600)

• Rush attempts: Denver
• Td per pass attempt: Denver
• Pass yds/att: Denver
• Point Differential: Denver
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
• Turnover margin: Denver
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New York Jets
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New York Jets +10.5, Denver -600, under 41

Mike’s Pick(s): Denver -10.5, Denver -600, under 41

9/26/21 – 4:05 pm: Miami (+3.5, +170, 45.5) at Las Vegas (-195)

• Rush attempts: Las Vegas
• Td per pass attempt: Las Vegas
• Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
• Point Differential: Las Vegas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Las Vegas
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Las Vegas
• Turnover margin: Las Vegas
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Las Vegas
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick: Las Vegas -3.5, Las Vegas -195

Mike’s Pick: Las Vegas -3.5, Las Vegas -195, under 45.5

9/26/21 – 4:25 pm: Tampa Bay (-1, -128, 55.5) at Los Angeles Rams (+108)

• Rush attempts: Rams
• Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
• Pass yds/att: Rams
• Point Differential: Tampa Bay
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
• Turnover margin: Rams
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Rams
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick: Rams +1, Rams +108, over 55.5

Mike’s Pick: Rams +1, Rams +108, over 55.5

9/26/21 – 4:25 pm: Seattle (-2, -127, 55.5) at Minnesota (+107)

• Rush attempts: Minnesota
• Td per pass attempt: Seattle
• Pass yds/att: Seattle
• Point Differential: Seattle
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Minnesota
• Turnover Margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Seattle -2, Seattle -127, over 55.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Seattle -2, Seattle -127, over 55.5

9/26/21 – 8:25 pm: Green Bay (+3.5, +150, 50) at San Francisco (-170)

• Rush attempts: San Francisco
• Td per pass attempt: Green Bay
• Pass yds/att: San Francisco
• Point Differential: San Francisco
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: San Francisco
• Rush yds allowed/gm: San Francisco
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: San Francisco
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): San Francisco -3.5, San Francisco -150, under 50

Mike’s Pick(s): Green Bay +3.5, Green Bay +150, under 50

9/27/21 – 8:15 pm: Philadelphia (+3.5, +161, 52) at Dallas (-181)

• Rush attempts: Philadelphia
• Td per pass attempt: Philadelphia
• Pass yds/att: Philadelphia
• Point Differential: Philadelphia
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Philadelphia
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Dallas
• Turnover margin: Dallas
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia +3.5, Philadelphia +161, under 52

Mike’s Pick(s): Dallas -3.5, Dallas -181, over 52

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