If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 9/19/21
Image: Clutchpoints
Welcome! Thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 9/19/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.
Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”
Mike will update us with the numbers for last week, but my guess is that they are ugly as we did no research. Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.
2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.
If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.
Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.
Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.
You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.
If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.
All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.
9/16/21 – 8:20 pm: New York Giants (+3.5, +150, 40.5) at Washington (-170)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Washington
- Rush attempts: Washington
- Td per pass attempt: Washington
- Pass yds/att: Washington
- Point Differential: Washington
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Washington
- Turnover margin: Washington
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Washington
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Washington -3.5; Washington -170; over 40.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Washington -3.5; Washington -170; under 40.5
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: New Orleans (-195, -3.5, 44) at Carolina (+170)
- Rush yds allowed per game: New Orleans
- Rush attempts: New Orleans
- Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
- Pass yds/att: Carolina
- Point Differential: New Orleans
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
- Turnover margin: New Orleans
- Fumble Recovery Rate: New Orleans
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New Orleans -3.5; New Orleans -195; over 44
Mike’s Pick(s): New Orleans -3.5; New Orleans -195; under 44
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: Cincinnati (+3, +130, 44.5) at Chicago (-150)
- Rush attempts: Cincinnati
- Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
- Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
- Point Differential: Cincinnati
- Rush Yds Allowed: Cincinnati
- Turnover margin: Cincinnati
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Cincinnati
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cincinnati
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cincinnati +3; Cincinnati +130
Mike’s Pick(s): Cincinnati +3; Cincinnati +130; under 44.5
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: Houston (+12.5, +525, 48) at Cleveland (-725)
- Rush attempts: Houston
- Td per pass attempt: Houston
- Pass yds/att: Cleveland
- Point Differential: Houston
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
- Turnover margin: Houston
- Fumble Recovery Rate: —
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Houston
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Houston +12.5; Houston +525; over 48
Mike’s Pick: Houston +12.5; Cleveland -725; under 48
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: Los Angeles Rams (-4, -205, 47.5) at Indianapolis (+175)
- Rush attempts: Indianapolis
- Td per pass attempt: Rams
- Pass yds/att: Rams
- Point Differential: Rams
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Rams
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
- Turnover margin: Rams
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Rams
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Rams -4; Rams -205
Mike’s Picks: Rams -4; Rams -205; under 47.5
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: Denver (-6, -255, 45) at Jacksonville (+215)
- Rush attempts: Denver
- Td per pass attempt: Jacksonville
- Pass yds/att: Denver
- Point Differential: Denver
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
- Turnover margin: Denver
- Fumble Recovery Rate: —
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Denver -6; Denver -255
Mike’s Pick(s): Denver -6; Denver -255; under 45
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: Buffalo (-3.5, -177, 48.5) at Miami (+157)
- Rush attempts: Buffalo
- Td per pass attempt: Miami
- Pass yds/att: Miami
- Point Differential: Miami
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Miami
- Rushing yds allowed/gm: Buffalo
- Turnover margin: Miami
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Miami +3.5; Miami +157; over 48.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Buffalo +3.5; Buffalo -177; under 48.5
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: New England (-6, -250, 42.5) at New York Jets (+210)
- Rush attempts: New England
- Td per pass attempt: Jets
- Pass yds/att: New England
- Point Differential: New England
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New England
- Rush yds allowed/gm: New England
- Turnover margin: Jets
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Jets
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Jets +6; New England -250; over 42.5
Mike’s Pick(s): New England -6; New England -250; under 42.5
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: San Francisco (-3.5, -190, 50) at Philadelphia (+165)
- Rush attempts: Philadelphia
- Td per pass attempt: Philadelphia
- Pass yds/att: San Francisco
- Point Differential: Philadelphia
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Philadelphia
- Rush yds allowed/gm: San Francisco
- Turnover margin: Philadelphia
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia +3.5; Philadelphia +165
Mike’s Pick(s): San Francisco -3.5; San Francisco -190; over 50
9/19/21 – 1:00 pm: Las Vegas (+5.5, +210, 47) at Pittsburgh (-250)
- Rush attempts: —
- Td per pass attempt: Las Vegas
- Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
- Point Differential: Pittsburgh
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Pittsburgh
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
- Turnover margin: —
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Las Vegas
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Las Vegas +5.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Pittsburgh -5.5; Pittsburgh -250; over 47
9/19/21 – 4:05 pm: Minnesota (+4.5, +170, 51) at Arizona (-195)
- Rush attempts: Arizona
- Td per pass attempt: Arizona
- Pass yds/att: Arizona
- Point Differential: Arizona
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Arizona
- Turnover margin: Arizona
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Arizona -4.5; Arizona -195
Mike’s Pick: Arizona -4.5; Arizona -195; over 50.5
9/19/21 – 4:05 pm: Atlanta (+12.5, +515, 52) at Tampa Bay (-665)
- Rush attempts: Atlanta
- Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
- Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
- Point Differential: Tampa Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
- Turnover margin: Atlanta
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Atlanta
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Atlanta +12.5; Tampa Bay -665
Mike’s Pick: Tampa Bay +12.5; Tampa Bay -665; under 52
9/19/21 – 4:25 pm: Dallas (+3, +140, 55.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-160)
- Rush attempts: Chargers
- Td per pass attempt: Dallas
- Pass yds/att: Chargers
- Point Differential: Chargers
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chargers
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Dallas
- Turnover Margin: Dallas
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
- Record in close games: Chargers
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Dallas +3; San Diego -160; under 55.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Dallas +3; Dallas +140; over 55.5
9/19/21 – 4:25 pm: Tennessee (+5.5, +200, 54) at Seattle (-240)
- Rush attempts: Seattle
- Td per pass attempt: Seattle
- Pass yds/att: Seattle
- Point Differential: Seattle
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Seattle
- Turnover margin: Seattle
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Seattle -5.5; Seattle -240
Mike’s Pick(s): Seattle -5.5; Seattle -240; over 54
9/19/21 – 8:20 pm: Kansas City (-4, -190, 55) at Baltimore (+165)
- Rush attempts: Baltimore
- Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
- Pass yds/att: Kansas City
- Point Differential: Kansas City
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Baltimore
- Turnover margin: Kansas City
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Kansas City
- Record in close games: Kansas City
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Kansas City -4; Kansas City -190; under 55.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Kansas City -4; Kansas City -190; over 55.5
9/20/21 – 8:15 pm: Detroit (+11, +430, 48) at Green Bay (-550)
- Rush attempts: Detroit
- Td per pass attempt: Detroit
- Pass yds/att: Detroit
- Point Differential: Detroit
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Detroit
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Detroit
- Turnover margin: Detroit
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Detroit
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Detroit +11; Detroit +430
Mike’s Pick(s): Detroit +11; Green Bay -550; under 48
