If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 11/7/21

Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 11/7/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.

Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”

Mike was a monumental 23-22 (.511, -1057 units) last week and his record for the year is now 155-114 (.576, +455 units). Kwaisi was 23-20 (.534, -433 units) bringing his record for the year to 151-142 (.515, -1244 units).

Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.

2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.

If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.

Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.

Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.

You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.

If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.

All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.

11/4/21 – 8:20 pm: New York Jets (+10.5, +420, 46.5) at Indianapolis Colts (-525)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Indianapolis
• Rush attempts: Indianapolis
• Td per pass attempt: Indianapolis
• Pass yds/att: Indianapolis
• Point Differential: Indianapolis
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Indianapolis
• Turnover margin: Indianapolis
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Jets
• Record in close games: Jets

Kwaisi’s Pick: Jets +10.5, Indianapolis -525, over 46.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Indianapolis -10.5, Indianapolis -525, under 46.5

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: Minnesota (+5.5, +205, 49.5) at Baltimore (-245)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Baltimore
• Rush attempts: Baltimore
• Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
• Pass yds/att: Baltimore
• Point Differential: Baltimore
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
• Turnover margin: Minnesota
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
• Record in close games: Baltimore

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Minnesota +5.5, Baltimore -245, under 49.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Baltimore-5.5, Baltimore -245, over 49.5

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: New England (-4, -190, 41) at Carolina (+162)

• Rush attempts: Carolina
• Td per pass attempt: New England
• Pass yds/att: New England
• Point Differential: New England
• Rush Yds Allowed: Carolina
• Turnover margin: New England
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New England
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New England -4, New England -190, over 41

Mike’s Pick(s): New England -4, New England -190, under 41

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: Cleveland (+2.5, +115, 47) at Cincinnati (-135)

• Rush attempts: Cleveland
• Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
• Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
• Point Differential: Cincinnati
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
• Turnover margin: Cincinnati
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Cincinnati
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cleveland
• Record in close games: Cincinnati

Kwaisi’s Pick: Cincinnati -2.5, Cincinnati -135, under 47

Mike’s Pick: Cincinnati -2.5, Cincinnati -135, over 47

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: Denver (+10, +345, 49.5) at Dallas (-425)

• Rush attempts: Dallas
• Td per pass attempt: Dallas
• Pass yds/att: Dallas
• Point Differential: Dallas
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Dallas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Dallas
• Turnover margin: Dallas
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
• Record in close games: Dallas

Kwaisi’s Pick: Dallas -10, Dallas -425, under 49.5

Mike’s Picks: Dallas -10, Dallas -425, under 49.5

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: Buffalo (-14.5, -1050, 48.5) at Jacksonville (+675)

• Rush attempts: Buffalo
• Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
• Pass yds/att: Buffalo
• Point Differential: Buffalo
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Buffalo
• Turnover margin: Buffalo
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
• Record in close games: Jacksonville

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Jacksonville -14.5, Buffalo -1050, under 48.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Jacksonville -14.5, Buffalo -1050, over 48.5

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: Houston (+6.5, +237, 45.5) at Miami (-282)

• Rush attempts: Houston
• Td per pass attempt: Miami
• Pass yds/att: Miami
• Point Differential: Miami
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Miami
• Rushing yds allowed/gm: Miami
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Miami
• Record in close games: Miami

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Miami -6.5, Miami -282, over 45.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Miami -6.5, Miami -282, over 45.5

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: Atlanta (+6, +212, 42) at New Orleans (-252)

• Rush attempts: New Orleans
• Td per pass attempt: Atlanta
• Pass yds/att: Atlanta
• Point Differential: New Orleans
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
• Rush yds allowed/gm: New Orleans
• Turnover margin: New Orleans
• Fumble Recovery Rate: —
• Record in close games: New Orleans

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New Orleans -252, over 42

Mike’s Pick(s): New Orleans -6, New Orleans -252, under 42

11/7/21 – 1:00 pm: Las Vegas (-3, -155, 46.5) at New York Giants (+135)

• Rush attempts: Las Vegas
• Td per pass attempt: Las Vegas
• Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
• Point Differential: Las Vegas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Las Vegas
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Giants
• Turnover margin: Las Vegas
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Giants
• Record in close games: Las Vegas

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Las Vegas -3, Las Vegas -155, over 46.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Las Vegas -3, Las Vegas -155, over 46.5

11/7/21 – 4:05 pm: Los Angeles Chargers (-1, -130, 50) at Philadelphia (+110)

• Rush attempts: Philadelphia
• Td per pass attempt: Chargers
• Pass yds/att: —
• Point Differential: Philadelphia
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chargers
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Philadelphia
• Turnover margin: Chargers
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
• Record in close games: Philadelphia

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia +1, Philadelphia +110, under 50

Mike’s Pick(s): Chargers -1, Chargers -130, under 50

11/7/21 – 4:25 pm: Green Bay (+7.5, +280, 47.5) at Kansas City (-163)

• Rush attempts: Green Bay
• Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
• Pass yds/att: Kansas City
• Point Differential: Green Bay
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Green Bay
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Green Bay
• Turnover margin: Green Bay
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Green Bay
• Record in close games: Green Bay

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Green Bay +7.5, Green Bay +280, over 47.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Kansas City -7.5, Kansas City -163, under 47.5

11/7/21 – 4:25 pm: Arizona (pick, -140, 46) at San Francisco (+120)

• Rush attempts: Arizona
• Td per pass attempt: Arizona
• Pass yds/att: Arizona
• Point Differential: Arizona
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Arizona
• Turnover margin: Arizona
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
• Record in close games: Arizona

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Arizona pick, Arizona -140, over 46

Mike’s Pick(s): Arizona pick, Arizona -140, over 46

11/7/21 – 8:20 pm: Tennessee (+7.5, +280, 53.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-350)

• Rush attempts: Tennessee
• Td per pass attempt: Rams
• Pass yds/att: Rams
• Point Differential: Rams
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Tennessee
• Turnover margin: Rams
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Rams
• Record in close games: Rams

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Rams -350, under 53.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Rams -7.5, Rams -350, under 53.5

11/8/21 – 8:15 pm: Chicago (+6.5, +227, 40) at Pittsburgh (-267)

• Rush attempts: Chicago
• Td per pass attempt: Pittsburgh
• Pass yds/att: Pittsburgh
• Point Differential: Pittsburgh
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Pittsburgh
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
• Turnover margin: Pittsburgh
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Chicago +6.5, Pittsburgh -267, under 40

Mike’s Pick(s): Pittsburgh -6.5, Pittsburgh -267, under 40

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