If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 11/14/21
Image: Field Gulls
Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 11/14/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.
Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”
It was ugly last week for all involved. Mike was 20-22 (.476, -2127 units) last week and his record for the year is now 172-136 (.558, -1672 units). Kwaisi was worse going 18-22 (.450, -2307 units) bringing his record for the year to 169-164 (.508, -3551 units).
Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.
2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.
If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.
Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.
Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.
You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.
If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.
All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.
11/11/21 – 8:20 pm: Baltimore (-7.5, -370, 46.5) at Miami (+300)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Baltimore
- Rush attempts: Baltimore
- Td per pass attempt: Baltimore
- Pass yds/att: Baltimore
- Point Differential: Baltimore
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
- Turnover margin: Baltimore
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Baltimore
- Record in close games: Baltimore
Kwaisi’s Pick: Baltimore -7.5, Baltimore -370, over 46.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Baltimore -7.5, Baltimore -370, over 46.5
11/14/21 – 1:00 pm: Atlanta (+9, +330, 54.5) at Dallas (-410)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Dallas
- Rush attempts: Dallas
- Td per pass attempt: Dallas
- Pass yds/att: Dallas
- Point Differential: Dallas
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Dallas
- Turnover margin: Dallas
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
- Record in close games: Atlanta
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Dallas -9, Dallas -410, under 54.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Dallas -9, Dallas -410, under 54.5
11/14/21 – 1:00 pm: Jacksonville (+10.5, +380, 48) at Indianapolis (-470)
- Rush attempts: Indianapolis
- Td per pass attempt: Indianapolis
- Pass yds/att: Indianapolis
- Point Differential: Indianapolis
- Rush Yds Allowed: Jacksonville
- Turnover margin: Indianapolis
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Indianapolis
- Record in close games: Jacksonville
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +10.5, Indianapolis -470, under 48
Mike’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +10.5, Indianapolis -470, under 48
11/14/21 – 1:00 pm: Cleveland (+1, +105, 45) at New England (-125)
- Rush attempts: Cleveland
- Td per pass attempt: Cleveland
- Pass yds/att: Cleveland
- Point Differential: New England
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
- Turnover margin: New England
- Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cleveland
- Record in close games: New England
Kwaisi’s Pick: Cleveland +1, Cleveland +105, over 45
Mike’s Pick: Cleveland +1, Cleveland +105, under 45
11/14/21 – 1:00 pm: Buffalo (-12.5, -625, 47.5) at New York Jets (+485)
- Rush attempts: Buffalo
- Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
- Pass yds/att: Buffalo
- Point Differential: Buffalo
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Buffalo
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
- Turnover margin: Buffalo
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
- Record in close games: Jets
Kwaisi’s Pick: Jets +12.5, Buffalo -625, under 47.5
Mike’s Picks: Buffalo -12.5, Buffalo -625, under 47.5
11/14/21 – 1:00 pm: Detroit (+9, +320, 42.5) at Pittsburgh (-400)
- Rush attempts: Pittsburgh
- Td per pass attempt: Pittsburgh
- Pass yds/att: Pittsburgh
- Point Differential: Pittsburgh
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Pittsburgh
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
- Turnover margin: Pittsburgh
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Detroit
- Record in close games: Pittsburgh
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Pittsburgh -9, Pittsburgh -400, over 42.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Pittsburgh -9, Pittsburgh -400, under 42.5
11/14/21 – 1:00 pm: New Orleans (+3, +128, 44) at Tennessee (-148)
- Rush attempts: Tennessee
- Td per pass attempt: Tennessee
- Pass yds/att: Tennessee
- Point Differential: New Orleans
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
- Rushing yds allowed/gm: New Orleans
- Turnover margin: New Orleans
- Fumble Recovery Rate: —
- Record in close games: Tennessee
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New Orleans +3, over 44
Mike’s Pick(s): Tennessee -3, Tennessee -148, under 44
11/14/21 – 1:00 pm: Tampa Bay (-10, -450, 51) at Washington (+360)
- Rush attempts: Washington
- Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
- Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
- Point Differential: Tampa Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
- Turnover margin: Tampa Bay
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Washington
- Record in close games: Tampa Bay
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Washington +10, Tampa Bay -450, over 51
Mike’s Pick(s): Tampa Bay -10, Tampa Bay -450, over 51
11/14/21 – 4:05 pm: Carolina (+10.5, +360, 44) at Arizona (-450)
- Rush attempts: Arizona
- Td per pass attempt: Arizona
- Pass yds/att: Arizona
- Point Differential: Arizona
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Arizona
- Turnover margin: Arizona
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Arizona -10.5, Arizona -450, under 44
Mike’s Pick(s): Arizona -10.5, Arizona -450, over 44
11/14/21 – 4:05 pm: Minnesota (+3, +148, 53.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-168)
- Rush attempts: Minnesota
- Td per pass attempt: Chargers
- Pass yds/att: Chargers
- Point Differential: Minnesota
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Minnesota
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Minnesota
- Turnover margin: Minnesota
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
- Record in close games: Chargers
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Minnesota +3, Minnesota +148, under 53.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Chargers -3, Chargers -168, over 53.5
11/14/21 – 4:25 pm: Philadelphia (+2, +108, 45.5) at Denver (-128)
- Rush attempts: Philadelphia
- Td per pass attempt: Denver
- Pass yds/att: Denver
- Point Differential: Denver
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Philadelphia
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
- Turnover margin: Philadelphia
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
- Record in close games: Philadelphia
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia +2, Philadelphia +108, under 45.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Denver -2, Denver -128, under 45.5
11/14/21 – 4:25 pm: Seattle (+3.5, +149, 49.5) at Green Bay (-169)
- Rush attempts: Green Bay
- Td per pass attempt: Seattle
- Pass yds/att: Seattle
- Point Differential: Green Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Green Bay
- Turnover margin: Green Bay
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
- Record in close games: Green Bay
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Seattle +3.5, Green Bay -169, under 49.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Green Bay -3.5, Green Bay -169, under 49.5
11/14/21 – 8:20 pm: Kansas City (-2.5, -145, 52) at Las Vegas (+125)
- Rush attempts: Kansas City
- Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
- Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
- Point Differential: Las Vegas
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Kansas City
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Kansas City
- Turnover margin: Las Vegas
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Las Vegas
- Record in close games: Las Vegas
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Las Vegas +2.5, Las Vegas +125, under 52
Mike’s Pick(s): Kansas City -2.5, Kansas City -145, under 52
11/15/21 – 8:15 pm: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, -183, 49.5) at San Francisco (+163)
- Rush attempts: Rams
- Td per pass attempt: Rams
- Pass yds/att: Rams
- Point Differential: Rams
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Rams
- Turnover margin: Rams
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Rams
- Record in close games: Rams
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Rams -3.5, Rams -183, under 49.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Rams -3.5, Rams -183, over 49.5
