If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 10/31/21
The Game of the Week for NFL Sunday 10/31/21 is actually on Thursday Night with the 7-0 Arizona Cardinals led by mvp frontrunner Kyler Murray facing the 6-1 Packers led by last year’s MVP Aaron Rodgers
tImage: ClutchPoints
Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 10/31/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.
Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”
Mike was a monumental 30-9 (.769, +1810 units) last week and his record for the year balloons to 132-92 (.589, +1502 units). Kwaisi was no slouch going 23-14 (.622, +560 units) bringing his record for the year finally over .500 to 128-122 (.512, -811 units).
Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.
2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.
If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.
Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.
Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.
You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.
If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.
All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.
10/28/21 – 8:20 pm: Green Bay (+6.5, +230, 50.5) at Arizona (-275)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Arizona
- Rush attempts: Arizona
- Td per pass attempt: Arizona
- Pass yds/att: Arizona
- Point Differential: Arizona
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
- Turnover margin: Arizona
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick: Arizona -6.5, Arizona -275, under 50.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Arizona -6.5, Arizona -275, over 50.5
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: Carolina (+3, +140, 46) at Atlanta (-160)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Carolina
- Rush attempts: Carolina
- Td per pass attempt: Atlanta
- Pass yds/att: Atlanta
- Point Differential: Carolina
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Carolina
- Turnover margin: Atlanta
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Atlanta
- Record in close games: Atlanta
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Carolina +3, Atlanta -160, over 46
Mike’s Pick(s): Atlanta -3, Atlanta -160, under 46
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: Miami (+13.5, +645, 49.5) at Buffalo (-905)
- Rush attempts: Buffalo
- Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
- Pass yds/att: Buffalo
- Point Differential: Buffalo
- Rush Yds Allowed: Buffalo
- Turnover margin: Buffalo
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
- Record in close games: Miami
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Miami +13.5, Buffalo -905, under 49.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Miami +13.5, Buffalo -905, under 49.5
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: San Francisco (-3.5, -197, 39.5) at Chicago (+172)
- Rush attempts: Chicago
- Td per pass attempt: San Francisco
- Pass yds/att: San Francisco
- Point Differential: San Francisco
- Rush yds allowed/gm: San Francisco
- Turnover margin: Chicago
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: San Francisco
- Record in close games: Chicago
Kwaisi’s Pick: Chicago +3.5, San Francisco -197, over 39.5
Mike’s Pick: San Francisco -3.5, San Francisco -197, under 39.5
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: Pittsburgh (+3.5, +165, 42.5) at Cleveland (-190)
- Rush attempts: Cleveland
- Td per pass attempt: —
- Pass yds/att: —
- Point Differential: Cleveland
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cleveland
- Turnover margin: —
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Pittsburgh
- Record in close games: Pittsburgh
Kwaisi’s Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5, Cleveland -190, over 42.5
Mike’s Picks: Cleveland +3.5, Cleveland -190, under 42.5
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: Philadelphia (-3.5, -179, 48) at Detroit (+159)
- Rush attempts: Detroit
- Td per pass attempt: Philadelphia
- Pass yds/att: Philadelphia
- Point Differential: Philadelphia
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Philadelphia
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Detroit
- Turnover margin: Philadelphia
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
- Record in close games: Philadelphia
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia -3.5, Philadelphia -179
Mike’s Pick(s): Detroit +3.5, Detroit +159, under 48
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: Los Angeles Rams (-14.5, -1000, 47.5) at Houston (+660)
- Rush attempts: Rams
- Td per pass attempt: Rams
- Pass yds/att: Rams
- Point Differential: Rams
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
- Rushing yds allowed/gm: Rams
- Turnover margin: Rams
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Rams
- Record in close games: Rams
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Rams -14.5, Rams -1000, under 47.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Rams -14.5, Rams -1000, under 47.5
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: Tennessee (+1, +100, 51) at Indianapolis (-120)
- Rush attempts: Tennessee
- Td per pass attempt: Indianapolis
- Pass yds/att: Indianapolis
- Point Differential: Tennessee
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Indianapolis
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tennessee
- Turnover margin: Indianapolis
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
- Record in close games: Tennessee
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Indianapolis -1, Indianapolis -120, under 51
Mike’s Pick(s): Tennessee +1, Tennessee +100, over 51
10/31/21 – 1:00 pm: Cincinnati (-10.5, -510, 42) at New York Jets (+405)
- Rush attempts: Cincinnati
- Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
- Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
- Point Differential: Cincinnati
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cincinnati
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Cincinnati
- Turnover margin: Cincinnati
- Fumble Recovery Rate: New York Jets
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New York Jets +10.5, Cincinnati -510, over 42
Mike’s Pick(s): Cincinnati -10.5, Cincinnati -510, under 42
10/31/21 – 4:05 pm: New England Patriots (+5, +197, 49.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-227)
- Rush attempts: New England
- Td per pass attempt: Chargers
- Pass yds/att: —
- Point Differential: New England
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New England
- Rush yds allowed/gm: New England
- Turnover margin: Chargers
- Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
- Record in close games: Chargers
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New England +5, New England +197, under 49.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Chargers -5, Chargers -227, over 49.5
10/31/21 – 4:05 pm: Jacksonville (+3, +143, 43.5) at Seattle (-163)
- Rush attempts: Seattle
- Td per pass attempt: —
- Pass yds/att: —
- Point Differential: Seattle
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Jacksonville
- Turnover margin: Seattle
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
- Record in close games: Jacksonville
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Seattle -3, Seattle -163, over 43.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Seattle -3, Seattle -163, under 43.5
10/31/21 – 4:25 pm: Washington (+3, +145, 44) at Denver (-165)
- Rush attempts: Washington
- Td per pass attempt: Denver
- Pass yds/att: Denver
- Point Differential: Denver
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
- Turnover margin: —
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Washington
- Record in close games: Washington
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Denver -145, over 44
Mike’s Pick(s): Denver -3, Denver -145, under 44
10/31/21 – 4:25 pm: Tampa Bay (-5.5, -245, 50) at New Orleans (+205)
- Rush attempts: New Orleans
- Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
- Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
- Point Differential: Tampa Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
- Turnover margin: Tampa Bay
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Tampa Bay
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Tampa Bay -5.5, Tampa Bay -245, under 50
Mike’s Pick(s): Tampa Bay -5.5, Tampa Bay -245, over 50
10/31/21 – 8:20 pm: Dallas (-1.5, -125, 55) at Minnesota (+105)
- Rush attempts: Dallas
- Td per pass attempt: Dallas
- Pass yds/att: Dallas
- Point Differential: Dallas
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Dallas
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Dallas
- Turnover margin: Dallas
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
- Record in close games: Dallas
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Dallas -1.5, Dallas -125, under 55
Mike’s Pick(s): Dallas -1.5, Dallas -125, over 55
11/01/21 – 8:15 pm: New York Giants (+10, +360, 52) at Kansas City Chiefs (-450)
- Rush attempts: Giants
- Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
- Pass yds/att: Kansas City
- Point Differential: Kansas City
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Kansas City
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Giants
- Turnover margin: Giants
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Giants
- Record in close games: Kansas City
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Giants +10, Kansas City -450, under 52
Mike’s Pick(s): Chiefs -10, Kansas City -450, under 52
