If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 10/3/21

by KTB Editors · October 3, 2021

Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 10/3/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.

Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”

Mike stayed on a role going 26-22 (.540, -84 units) bringing his record to 53-42 (.558, +101 units). Kwaisi was better, but still trash going 17-25 (.405, -1154) bringing his garbage record to 29-50 (.367, -2659 units).

Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.

2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.

If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.

Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.

Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.

You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.

If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.

All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.

9/30/21 – 8:20 pm: Jacksonville (+7.5, +290, 46) at Cincinnati (-360)

Rush yds allowed per game: Cincinnati
Rush attempts: Cincinnati
Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
Point Differential: Cincinnati
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cincinnati
Turnover margin: Cincinnati
Fumble Recovery Rate: Jacksonville
Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick: Cincinnati +7.5, Cincinnati -360, under 46

Mike’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +7.5, Cincinnati -360, under 46

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Washington (-1.5 -125, 47.5) at Atlanta (+105)

Rush yds allowed per game: Atlanta
Rush attempts: Washington
Td per pass attempt: Washington
Pass yds/att: Washington
Point Differential: Washington
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Washington
Turnover margin: Atlanta
Fumble Recovery Rate: Washington
Record in close games: Atlanta

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Washington -1.5, Washington -125, under 47.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Washington -1.5, Washington -125, under 47.5

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Houston (+16.5, +825, 47) at Buffalo (-1400)

Rush attempts: Buffalo
Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
Pass yds/att: Buffalo
Point Differential: Buffalo
Rush Yds Allowed: Buffalo
Turnover margin: —
Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Houston +10.5, Buffalo -1400, over 47

Mike’s Pick(s): Houston +10.5, Buffalo -1400, over 47

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Detroit (+2.5, +125, 41.5) at Chicago (-145)

Rush attempts: Chicago
Td per pass attempt: Detroit
Pass yds/att: Detroit
Point Differential: Chicago
Rush yds allowed/gm: Detroit
Turnover margin: Chicago
Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chicago
Record in close games: Chicago

Kwaisi’s Pick: Chicago -2.5, Chicago -145, under 41.5

Mike’s Pick: Chicago -2.5, Chicago -145, under 41.5

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Carolina (+4.5, +175, 51.5) at Dallas (-205)

Rush attempts: Carolina
Td per pass attempt: Dallas
Pass yds/att: Carolina
Point Differential: Carolina
Rush yds allowed/gm: Carolina
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Carolina
Turnover margin: Dallas
Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
Record in close games: Carolina

Kwaisi’s Pick: Carolina +4.5, Carolina +175, under 51.5

Mike’s Picks: Dallas -4.5, Dallas -205, under 51.5

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Indianapolis (+1.5, +113, 42.5) at Miami (-133)

Rush attempts: Indianapolis
Td per pass attempt: Indianapolis
Pass yds/att: Indianapolis
Point Differential: Indianapolis
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Miami
Rush yds allowed/gm: Miami
Turnover margin: Indianapolis
Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
Record in close games: Miami

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Indianapolis +1.5, Indianapolis +113, under 42.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Indianapolis +1.5, Indianapolis +113, under 42.5

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Cleveland (-2, -135, 51.5) at Minnesota (+115)

Rush attempts: Cleveland
Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
Pass yds/att: Cleveland
Point Differential: Cleveland
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cleveland
Rushing yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
Turnover margin: Minnesota
Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cleveland -2, Cleveland -135, over 51.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Cleveland -2, Cleveland -135, under 51.5

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: New York Giants (+7.5, +280, 42) at New Orleans (-350)

Rush attempts: New Orleans
Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
Pass yds/att: Giants
Point Differential: New Orleans
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
Rush yds allowed/gm: New Orleans
Turnover margin: New Orleans
Fumble Recovery Rate: Giants
Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New York Giants +7.5, New Orleans -350, over 42

Mike’s Pick(s): New Orleans -7.5, New Orleans -350, under 42

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Tennessee (-7, -310, 44.5) at New York Jets (+260)

Rush attempts: Tennessee
Td per pass attempt: Tennessee
Pass yds/att: Tennessee
Point Differential: Tennessee
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tennessee
Rush yds allowed/gm: Tennessee
Turnover margin: Jets
Fumble Recovery Rate: Jets
Record in close games: Tennessee

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Tennessee -7, Tennessee -310, under 44.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Tennessee -7, Tennessee -310, under 44.5

10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Kansas City (-7, -315, 54.5) at Philadelphia (+265)

Rush attempts: Philadelphia
Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
Pass yds/att: Kansas City
Point Differential: Kansas City
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Kansas City
Rush yds allowed/gm: Philadelphia
Turnover margin: Philadelphia
Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia +7, under 54.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Kansas City -7, Kansas City -315, over 54.5

10/3/21 – 4:05 pm: Arizona (+4, +182, 54) at Los Angeles Rams (-212)

Rush attempts: Arizona
Td per pass attempt: Rams
Pass yds/att: Rams
Point Differential: Arizona
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
Rush yds allowed/gm: Rams
Turnover margin: Arizona
Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Arizona +4, over 54

Mike’s Pick(s): Rams -4, Rams -212, under 54

10/3/21 – 4:05 pm: Seattle (+2.5, +120, 52) at San Francisco (-140)

Rush attempts: San Francisco
Td per pass attempt: Seattle
Pass yds/att: Seattle
Point Differential: San Francisco
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
Rush yds allowed/gm: San Francisco
Turnover margin: Seattle
Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick: Seattle +2.5, Seattle +120, over 52

Mike’s Pick: San Francisco -2.5, San Francisco -240, under 52

10/3/21 – 4:25 pm: Baltimore (+1, -102, 44) at Denver (-118)

Rush attempts: Baltimore
Td per pass attempt: Denver
Pass yds/att: Baltimore
Point Differential: Denver
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
Turnover margin: Denver
Fumble Recovery Rate: Baltimore
Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick: Denver -1, Denver -118, over 44

Mike’s Pick: Denver -1, Denver -118, over 44

10/3/21 – 4:25 pm: Pittsburgh (+6, +220, 45) at Green Bay (-260)

Rush attempts: Green Bay
Td per pass attempt: Green Bay
Pass yds/att: Green Bay
Point Differential: Green Bay
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Green Bay
Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
Turnover Margin: Green Bay
Fumble Recovery Rate: Green Bay
Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Green Bay -6, Green Bay -260, under 45

Mike’s Pick(s): Green Bay -6, Green Bay -260, over 45

10/3/21 – 8:25 pm: Tampa Bay (-6.5, -265, 49.5) at New England (+225)

Rush attempts: New England
Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
Point Differential: Tampa Bay
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
Turnover margin: New England
Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
Record in close games: Tampa Bay

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New England +6.5, Tampa Bay -265, over 49.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Tampa Bay -6.5, Tampa Bay -265, under 49.5

10/4/21 – 8:15 pm: Las Vegas Raiders (+3, +144, 51.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-164)

Rush attempts: Las Vegas
Td per pass attempt: Chargers
Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
Point Differential: Las Vegas
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Las Vegas
Rush yds allowed/gm: Las Vegas
Turnover margin: Chargers
Fumble Recovery Rate: Las Vegas
Record in close games: Las Vegas

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Las Vegas +3, Las Vegas +144, over 52

Mike’s Pick(s): Las Vegas +3, Las Vegas +144, over 52

Comments

comments