If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 10/3/21

Image: The Sports Geek
Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 10/3/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.
Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”
Mike stayed on a role going 26-22 (.540, -84 units) bringing his record to 53-42 (.558, +101 units). Kwaisi was better, but still trash going 17-25 (.405, -1154) bringing his garbage record to 29-50 (.367, -2659 units).
Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.
2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.
If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.
Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.
Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.
You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.
If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.
All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.
9/30/21 – 8:20 pm: Jacksonville (+7.5, +290, 46) at Cincinnati (-360)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Cincinnati
- Rush attempts: Cincinnati
- Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
- Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
- Point Differential: Cincinnati
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cincinnati
- Turnover margin: Cincinnati
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Jacksonville
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Cincinnati +7.5, Cincinnati -360, under 46
Mike’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +7.5, Cincinnati -360, under 46
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Washington (-1.5 -125, 47.5) at Atlanta (+105)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Atlanta
- Rush attempts: Washington
- Td per pass attempt: Washington
- Pass yds/att: Washington
- Point Differential: Washington
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Washington
- Turnover margin: Atlanta
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Washington
- Record in close games: Atlanta
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Washington -1.5, Washington -125, under 47.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Washington -1.5, Washington -125, under 47.5
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Houston (+16.5, +825, 47) at Buffalo (-1400)
- Rush attempts: Buffalo
- Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
- Pass yds/att: Buffalo
- Point Differential: Buffalo
- Rush Yds Allowed: Buffalo
- Turnover margin: —
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Houston +10.5, Buffalo -1400, over 47
Mike’s Pick(s): Houston +10.5, Buffalo -1400, over 47
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Detroit (+2.5, +125, 41.5) at Chicago (-145)
- Rush attempts: Chicago
- Td per pass attempt: Detroit
- Pass yds/att: Detroit
- Point Differential: Chicago
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Detroit
- Turnover margin: Chicago
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chicago
- Record in close games: Chicago
Kwaisi’s Pick: Chicago -2.5, Chicago -145, under 41.5
Mike’s Pick: Chicago -2.5, Chicago -145, under 41.5
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Carolina (+4.5, +175, 51.5) at Dallas (-205)
- Rush attempts: Carolina
- Td per pass attempt: Dallas
- Pass yds/att: Carolina
- Point Differential: Carolina
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Carolina
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Carolina
- Turnover margin: Dallas
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
- Record in close games: Carolina
Kwaisi’s Pick: Carolina +4.5, Carolina +175, under 51.5
Mike’s Picks: Dallas -4.5, Dallas -205, under 51.5
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Indianapolis (+1.5, +113, 42.5) at Miami (-133)
- Rush attempts: Indianapolis
- Td per pass attempt: Indianapolis
- Pass yds/att: Indianapolis
- Point Differential: Indianapolis
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Miami
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Miami
- Turnover margin: Indianapolis
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
- Record in close games: Miami
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Indianapolis +1.5, Indianapolis +113, under 42.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Indianapolis +1.5, Indianapolis +113, under 42.5
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Cleveland (-2, -135, 51.5) at Minnesota (+115)
- Rush attempts: Cleveland
- Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
- Pass yds/att: Cleveland
- Point Differential: Cleveland
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cleveland
- Rushing yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
- Turnover margin: Minnesota
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cleveland -2, Cleveland -135, over 51.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Cleveland -2, Cleveland -135, under 51.5
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: New York Giants (+7.5, +280, 42) at New Orleans (-350)
- Rush attempts: New Orleans
- Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
- Pass yds/att: Giants
- Point Differential: New Orleans
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
- Rush yds allowed/gm: New Orleans
- Turnover margin: New Orleans
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Giants
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New York Giants +7.5, New Orleans -350, over 42
Mike’s Pick(s): New Orleans -7.5, New Orleans -350, under 42
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Tennessee (-7, -310, 44.5) at New York Jets (+260)
- Rush attempts: Tennessee
- Td per pass attempt: Tennessee
- Pass yds/att: Tennessee
- Point Differential: Tennessee
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tennessee
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tennessee
- Turnover margin: Jets
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Jets
- Record in close games: Tennessee
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Tennessee -7, Tennessee -310, under 44.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Tennessee -7, Tennessee -310, under 44.5
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Kansas City (-7, -315, 54.5) at Philadelphia (+265)
- Rush attempts: Philadelphia
- Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
- Pass yds/att: Kansas City
- Point Differential: Kansas City
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Kansas City
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Philadelphia
- Turnover margin: Philadelphia
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia +7, under 54.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Kansas City -7, Kansas City -315, over 54.5
10/3/21 – 4:05 pm: Arizona (+4, +182, 54) at Los Angeles Rams (-212)
- Rush attempts: Arizona
- Td per pass attempt: Rams
- Pass yds/att: Rams
- Point Differential: Arizona
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Rams
- Turnover margin: Arizona
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Arizona +4, over 54
Mike’s Pick(s): Rams -4, Rams -212, under 54
10/3/21 – 4:05 pm: Seattle (+2.5, +120, 52) at San Francisco (-140)
- Rush attempts: San Francisco
- Td per pass attempt: Seattle
- Pass yds/att: Seattle
- Point Differential: San Francisco
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
- Rush yds allowed/gm: San Francisco
- Turnover margin: Seattle
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick: Seattle +2.5, Seattle +120, over 52
Mike’s Pick: San Francisco -2.5, San Francisco -240, under 52
10/3/21 – 4:25 pm: Baltimore (+1, -102, 44) at Denver (-118)
- Rush attempts: Baltimore
- Td per pass attempt: Denver
- Pass yds/att: Baltimore
- Point Differential: Denver
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
- Turnover margin: Denver
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Baltimore
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Denver -1, Denver -118, over 44
Mike’s Pick: Denver -1, Denver -118, over 44
10/3/21 – 4:25 pm: Pittsburgh (+6, +220, 45) at Green Bay (-260)
- Rush attempts: Green Bay
- Td per pass attempt: Green Bay
- Pass yds/att: Green Bay
- Point Differential: Green Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Green Bay
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
- Turnover Margin: Green Bay
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Green Bay
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Green Bay -6, Green Bay -260, under 45
Mike’s Pick(s): Green Bay -6, Green Bay -260, over 45
10/3/21 – 8:25 pm: Tampa Bay (-6.5, -265, 49.5) at New England (+225)
- Rush attempts: New England
- Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
- Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
- Point Differential: Tampa Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
- Turnover margin: New England
- Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
- Record in close games: Tampa Bay
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New England +6.5, Tampa Bay -265, over 49.5
Mike’s Pick(s): Tampa Bay -6.5, Tampa Bay -265, under 49.5
10/4/21 – 8:15 pm: Las Vegas Raiders (+3, +144, 51.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-164)
- Rush attempts: Las Vegas
- Td per pass attempt: Chargers
- Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
- Point Differential: Las Vegas
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Las Vegas
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Las Vegas
- Turnover margin: Chargers
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Las Vegas
- Record in close games: Las Vegas
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Las Vegas +3, Las Vegas +144, over 52
Mike’s Pick(s): Las Vegas +3, Las Vegas +144, over 52