If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 10/17/21

Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 10/17/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.

Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”

Mike did not participate this week, and his record for the year remains 77-66 (.538, -811 units). Kwaisi had his best week of the year going 27-19 (.587, +575 units) bringing his still garbage record for the year to 79-92 (.462, -2084 units).

Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.

2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.

If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.

Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.

Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.

You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.

If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.

All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.

10/14/21 – 8:20 pm: Tampa Bay (-7, -305, 52.5) at Philadelphia (+255)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Tampa Bay
• Rush attempts: Philadelphia
• Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
• Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
• Point Differential: Tampa Bay
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
• Turnover margin: Tampa Bay
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick: Philadelphia +7, Tampa Bay -305, over 52.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Tampa Bay -7, Tampa Bay -305, over 52.5

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Miami (-3.5, -190, 47) at Jacksonville (+165)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Jacksonville
• Rush attempts: Jacksonville
• Td per pass attempt: Jacksonville
• Pass yds/att: Jacksonville
• Point Differential: Jacksonville
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Miami
• Turnover margin: Miami
• Fumble Recovery Rate: —
• Record in close games: Miami

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +3.5, Jacksonville +165, under 47

Mike’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +3.5, Jacksonville +165, under 47

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Los Angeles Chargers (+3, +130, 52) at Baltimore (-150)

• Rush attempts: Baltimore
• Td per pass attempt: Chargers
• Pass yds/att: Baltimore
• Point Differential: Chargers
• Rush Yds Allowed: Baltimore
• Turnover margin: Chargers
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Baltimore
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
• Record in close games: Baltimore

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Baltimore -3, Baltimore -150, over 52

Mike’s Pick(s): Chargers +3, Chargers +130, over 52

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Minnesota (-1, -122, 46) at Carolina (+102)

• Rush attempts: Carolina
• Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
• Pass yds/att: Carolina
• Point Differential: Carolina
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Carolina
• Turnover margin: Minnesota
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Minnesota
• Record in close games: Carolina

Kwaisi’s Pick: Carolina +1, Carolina +102, under 46

Mike’s Pick: Minnesota -1, Minnesota -122, under 46

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Green Bay (-4.5, -193, 44.5) at Chicago (+168)

• Rush attempts: Chicago
• Td per pass attempt: Green Bay
• Pass yds/att: Green Bay
• Point Differential: Green Bay
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Green Bay
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Green Bay
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick: Green Bay -4.5, Green Bay -193, under 44.5

Mike’s Picks: Green Bay -4.5, Green Bay -193, over 44.5

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Cincinnati (-3, -180, 47.5) at Detroit (+160)

• Rush attempts: Cincinnati
• Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
• Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
• Point Differential: Cincinnati
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cincinnati
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Cincinnati
• Turnover margin: Detroit
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Detroit
• Record in close games: Cincinnati

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cincinnati -3, Cincinnati -180, under 47.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Cincinnati -3, Cincinnati -180, under 47.5

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Houston (+9.5, +330, 42.5) at Indianapolis (-410)

• Rush attempts: Indianapolis
• Td per pass attempt: Houston
• Pass yds/att: Indianapolis
• Point Differential: Indianapolis
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Indianapolis
• Rushing yds allowed/gm: Indianapolis
• Turnover margin: Indianapolis
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Houston +9.5, Indianapolis -410, under 42.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Indianapolis -9.5, Indianapolis -410, over 42.5

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, -600, 47.5) at New York Giants (+474)

• Rush attempts: Rams
• Td per pass attempt: Rams
• Pass yds/att: Rams
• Point Differential: Rams
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Rams
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Giants
• Record in close games: Rams

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Giants +10.5, Rams -600, over 47.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Rams -10.5, Rams -600, under 47.5

10/17/21 – 1:00 pm: Kansas City (-7, -330, 55.5) at Washington (+275)

• Rush attempts: Washington
• Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
• Pass yds/att: Kansas City
• Point Differential: Kansas City
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Kansas City
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Washington
• Turnover margin: Washington
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Washington
• Record in close games: Washington

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Washington +7, Washington +275, under 55.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Washington +7, Kansas City -330, over 55.5

10/17/21 – 4:05 pm: Arizona (+3, +133, 49.5) at Cleveland (-153)

• Rush attempts: Cleveland
• Td per pass attempt: Arizona
• Pass yds/att: Arizona
• Point Differential: Arizona
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
• Turnover margin: Arizona
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
• Record in close games: Arizona

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Arizona +3, Arizona +133, over 49.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Arizona +3, Arizona +133, over 49.5

10/17/21 – 4:25 pm: Las Vegas (+3.5, +165, 44) at Denver (-190)

• Rush attempts: Denver
• Td per pass attempt: Denver
• Pass yds/att: Denver
• Point Differential: Denver
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
• Turnover margin: Denver
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Las Vegas
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Denver -3.5, Denver -190, under 43

Mike’s Pick(s): Denver -3.5, Denver -190, under 43

10/17/21 – 4:25 pm: Dallas (-4, -195, 51) at New England (+170)

• Rush attempts: Dallas
• Td per pass attempt: Dallas
• Pass yds/att: Dallas
• Point Differential: Dallas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Dallas
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Dallas
• Turnover margin: Dallas
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
• Record in close games: Dallas

Kwaisi’s Pick: Dallas -4, Dallas -195, over 51

Mike’s Pick: Dallas -4, Dallas -195, under 51

10/17/21 – 8:25 pm: Seattle (+4.5, +191, 42.5) at Pittsburgh (-221)

• Rush attempts: Seattle
• Td per pass attempt: Seattle
• Pass yds/att: Seattle
• Point Differential: Seattle
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
• Turnover margin: Seattle
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Seattle +4.5, Seattle +191, over 42.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Pittsburgh -4.5, Pittsburgh -221, under 42.5

10/18/21 – 8:15 pm: Buffalo (-6, -255, 54) at Tennessee (+215)

• Rush attempts: Tennessee
• Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
• Pass yds/att: Buffalo
• Point Differential: Buffalo
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Buffalo
• Turnover margin: Buffalo
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
• Record in close games: n/a

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Buffalo -6, Buffalo -255, over 54

Mike’s Pick(s): Buffalo -6, Buffalo -255, over 54

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