If We Were Betting Men Podcast: NFL Sunday 10/10/21
Image: NFL.com
Welcome and thank you for listening and watching the If We Were Betting Men Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 10/10/21. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe to our Patreon. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.
Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”
Mike slowed down going 24-24 (.500, -912 units) bringing his record to 77-66 (.538, -811 units). Kwaisi was better than trash going 23-23 (.500, -595 units) bringing his garbage record to 52-73 (.416, -2659 units).
Remember, setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.
2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.
If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.
Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.
Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.
You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.
If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.
All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.
10/07/21 – 8:20 pm: Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, -145, 54.5) at Seattle (+125)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Rams
- Rush attempts: Rams
- Td per pass attempt: Seattle
- Pass yds/att: Seattle
- Point Differential: Rams
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
- Turnover margin: Seattle
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
- Record in close games: Rams
Kwaisi’s Pick: Seattle +2.5, Rams -145, over 54.5
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: New York Jets (+3, +143, 46) at Atlanta (-163)
- Rush yds allowed per game: Atlanta
- Rush attempts: Atlanta
- Td per pass attempt: Atlanta
- Pass yds/att: Jets
- Point Differential: Jets
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Jets
- Turnover margin: Atlanta
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Jets
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Jets +3, under 46
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: Philadelphia (+3.5, +160, 45) at Carolina (-180)
- Rush attempts: Carolina
- Td per pass attempt: Philadelphia
- Pass yds/att: Carolina
- Point Differential: Carolina
- Rush Yds Allowed: Carolina
- Turnover margin: Philadelphia
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Carolina
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Philadelphia +3.5, Carolina -180, over 45
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/3/21 – 1:00 pm: Green Bay (-3, -158, 50.5) at Cincinnati (+138)
- Rush attempts: Green Bay
- Td per pass attempt: Cincinnati
- Pass yds/att: Cincinnati
- Point Differential: Cincinnati
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Cincinnati
- Turnover margin: Green Bay
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Green Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cincinnati
- Record in close games: Green Bay
Kwaisi’s Pick: Cincinnati +3, Cincinnati +138, under 50.5
Mike’s Pick:
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: New England (-9, -405, 39.5) at Houston (+325)
- Rush attempts: Houston
- Td per pass attempt: Houston
- Pass yds/att: New England
- Point Differential: New England
- Rush yds allowed/gm: New England
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New England
- Turnover margin: Houston
- Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick: Houston +9, New England -405, under 39.5
Mike’s Picks:
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: Tennessee (-4, -205, 49) at Jacksonville (+175)
- Rush attempts: Tennessee
- Td per pass attempt: Jacksonville
- Pass yds/att: Tennessee
- Point Differential: Tennessee
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tennessee
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tennessee
- Turnover margin: Tennessee
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Jacksonville
- Record in close games: Tennessee
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Tennessee -4, Tennessee -205, under 49
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: Detroit (+9.5, +320, 49.5) at Minnesota (-400)
- Rush attempts: Minnesota
- Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
- Pass yds/att: Minnesota
- Point Differential: Minnesota
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Minnesota
- Rushing yds allowed/gm: Detroit
- Turnover margin: Minnesota
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Detroit +9.5, Minnesota -400, under 49.5
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: Denver (pick, +100, 40) at Pittsburgh (-120)
- Rush attempts: Denver
- Td per pass attempt: Denver
- Pass yds/att: Denver
- Point Differential: Denver
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Denver
- Turnover margin: Denver
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Pittsburgh
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Denver pick, Denver +100, under 40
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: Miami (+10, +375, 48) at Tampa Bay (-465)
- Rush attempts: Miami
- Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
- Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
- Point Differential: Tampa Bay
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
- Turnover margin: Tampa Bay
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Miami
- Record in close games: Tampa Bay
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Miami +10, Tampa Bay -465, under 48
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 1:00 pm: New Orleans (-2, -131, 43.5) at Washington (+111)
- Rush attempts: New Orleans
- Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
- Pass yds/att: Washington
- Point Differential: New Orleans
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
- Rush yds allowed/gm: New Orleans
- Turnover margin: New Orleans
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Washington
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New Orleans – 2, New Orleans -131, over 43.5
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 4:05 pm: Cleveland (+2, +115, 47) at Los Angeles Chargers (-135)
- Rush attempts: Cleveland
- Td per pass attempt: Chargers
- Pass yds/att: Chargers
- Point Differential: Cleveland
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Cleveland
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Cleveland
- Turnover margin: Chargers
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Cleveland
- Record in close games: Chargers
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cleveland +2, Cleveland +115, over 47
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 4:05 pm: Chicago (+5.5, +200, 44.5) at Las Vegas (-240)
- Rush attempts: Chicago
- Td per pass attempt: Las Vegas
- Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
- Point Differential: Las Vegas
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Las Vegas
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Chicago
- Turnover margin: Chicago
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
- Record in close games: —
Kwaisi’s Pick: Chicago +5.5, under 44.5
Mike’s Pick:
10/10/21 – 4:25 pm: San Francisco (+4.5, +185, 49) at Arizona (-215)
- Rush attempts: Arizona
- Td per pass attempt: Arizona
- Pass yds/att: Arizona
- Point Differential: Arizona
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
- Rush yds allowed/gm: San Francisco
- Turnover margin: Arizona
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
- Record in close games: Arizona
Kwaisi’s Pick: Arizona -4.5, Arizona -215, over 49
Mike’s Pick:
10/10/21 – 4:25 pm: New York Giants (+7, +265, 52) at Dallas (-315)
- Rush attempts: Dallas
- Td per pass attempt: Dallas
- Pass yds/att: Giants
- Point Differential: Dallas
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Dallas
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Dallas
- Turnover Margin: Dallas
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
- Record in close games: Dallas
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Dallas +7, Dallas -265, over 52
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/10/21 – 8:25 pm: Buffalo (+3, +125, 56.5) at Kansas City (-145)
- Rush attempts: Buffalo
- Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
- Pass yds/att: Kansas City
- Point Differential: Buffalo
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Buffalo
- Turnover margin: Buffalo
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
- Record in close games: n/a
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Buffalo +3, Buffalo +125, over 56.5
Mike’s Pick(s):
10/11/21 – 8:15 pm: Indianapolis (+7, +255, 45.5) at Baltimore (-305)
- Rush attempts: Baltimore
- Td per pass attempt: Indianapolis
- Pass yds/att: Baltimore
- Point Differential: Baltimore
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
- Rush yds allowed/gm: Baltimore
- Turnover margin: Indianapolis
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
- Record in close games: Baltimore
Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Indianapolis +7, Baltimore -305, under 45.5
Mike’s Pick(s):
