If I Were A Betting Man, This Is What I’d Do: NFL Week 9
This is what I’d do if I were a betting man for Week 9 of the NFL season. My record would be 40-33 (.548) on the season. A skilled handicapper historically hits 55% of games long term. 52% of games won is the break-even point.
If I Were A Betting Man
We now have 8 weeks of results. This is what I’d do if I were betting this week:
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+3.5)
The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay. I’ll take the under 51.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (off)
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The line is currently off for this game, but I’d go Kansas City if it’s within a touchdown, whether it’s Alex Smith or Nick Foles.
Philadelphia at N.Y Giants (-2.5)
The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in New York and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings overall. I’d take the Eagles and the over 43.
New Orleans at San Francisco (+3.5)
The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in San Francisco and 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings. I like the Niners to right the ship and the over 52.
Tennessee at San Diego (-4.5)
The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego. The Titans are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Diego. I like the Chargers to rebound.
Denver at Oakland (pick)
The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oakland and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. The favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. This line opened at Oakland -2.5 and was obviously bet down. In a match-up for first place in the AFC West, I don’t think the Raiders are ready. I’d take Denver.
Buffalo at Seattle (-7)
The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Seattle and 8-0 in the last 8 meetings overall. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. I’ll take Buffalo and the over 44 provided LeSean McCoy can suit up.
These would be my picks if I were a betting man. As always, be careful if you gamble and make sure you are responsible.
