If I Were A Betting Man Podcast: NFL Sunday 12/20/20

Welcome! Thank you for listening and watching the If I Were A Betting Man Podcast with NFL plays for this Sunday 12/20/20. This is KTB TV and KTB Radio premium content so make sure you subscribe because it will remain free until it isn’t. Apologies in advance for the tech failures. Those will be taken care of by the time the content is premium. Odds and statistics are courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, The Football Outsiders, Numberfire, and Covers.

Kwaisi has honed in on 9 statistics that have shown to be correlative with winning football combining them with a wagering strategy that is centered primarily on return on investment. Mike goes with his gut coupled with his “superior intellect and knowledge of the game in comparison to Kwaisi.”

Last week, including against the spread (ATS), Kwaisi struggled going 20-22 (.476) and is 186-157 (.542) for the season while Mike was worse going 16-22 (.545) and is 191-168 (.532) for the season. Setting the money line bets aside, 52.5% of your bets at -110 juice will allow you to break even. This means a 55% handicapper is going to put a lot of money in your pocket while a 50% handicapper is going to lose you loads of cash.

2.5% doesn’t seem like a substantial amount; however, in sports betting it decides whether you are going to win or lose a lot of money. A $10,000 bankroll that makes 5% in week one profits $500. After week two, it would be $525 and after week three it would be $551.20. Fast forward to the end of a year and you now have $30,000.

If we think of it as winning 55% of wagering units, wagering ten units a day will result in one more unit after every other day with a 5% return. This would yield you from $30,000 to $40,000 in just one year! Winning this substantial amount of money is possible when you have a handicapper steadily hitting at 55 or above%.

Once you’ve got your handicapper who hits at 55%, then utilize their consistency to your advantage. Your daily cards are going to consist of numerous plays in many sports. It is important to remain consistent with the amount you wager. Do not increase your bets just because you have been winning and do not get impatient if you go on a losing streak.

Pick your amount per play and stick with it. Trust the process.

You should reinvest your winnings via increasing your unit amount per play each year. For example, let’s say you have been playing 2% per unit at $10,000, that would be $200. Well, now your bankroll has grown to $20,000, so your 2% has become $400.

If you keep following this trend, it is possible that you could turn that original $10,000 into well over a million dollars in ten years.

All you have to do is find a handicapper who hits 55% and increase your plays as your bankroll grows. We aim to be those handicappers. Here are our picks for 12/13/20.

12/17/20 – 8:20 pm: Chargers (+3.5, +162, 52.5) at Las Vegas (-182)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Chargers
• Rush attempts: Chargers
• Td per pass attempt: Las Vegas
• Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
• Point Differential: Las Vegas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chargers
• Turnover margin: Chargers
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Chargers
• Record in close games: Las Vegas

Kwaisi’s Pick: Chargers +3.5; Chargers +162; under 53

Mike’s Pick(s): Chargers +3.5; Raiders -182

12/19/20 – 4:30 pm: Buffalo (-7, -290, 49.5) at Denver (+245)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Buffalo
• Rush attempts: Denver
• Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
• Pass yds/att: Buffalo
• Point Differential: Buffalo
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Denver
• Turnover margin: Buffalo
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Denver
• Record in close games: Buffalo

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Denver +7; Buffalo -290; under 50

Mike’s Pick(s): Denver +7; Buffalo -290

12/19/20 – 8:15 pm: Carolina (+10, +345, 51.5) at Green Bay (-425)

• Rush attempts: Green Bay
• Td per pass attempt: Green Bay
• Pass yds/att: Green Bay
• Point Differential: Green Bay
• Rush Yds Allowed: Green Bay
• Turnover margin: Carolina
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Carolina
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Green Bay
• Record in close games: Green Bay

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Green Bay -10; Green Bay -425

Mike’s Pick(s): Green Bay -10; Green Bay -425

12/20/20 – 1:00 pm: Chicago (+3, +160, 47) at Minnesota (-180)

• Rush attempts: Minnesota
• Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
• Pass yds/att: Minnesota
• Point Differential: Chicago
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Chicago
• Turnover margin: Chicago
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chicago
• Record in close games: Chicago

Kwaisi’s Pick: Chicago +3; Chicago +160

Mike’s Pick: Minnesota -3; Minnesota -180

Tampa Bay (-6, -255, 50.5) at Atlanta (+215)

• Rush attempts: Atlanta
• Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
• Pass yds/att: Atlanta
• Point Differential: Tampa Bay
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Tampa Bay
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
• Turnover margin: Tampa Bay
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Tampa Bay
• Record in close games: Tampa Bay

Kwaisi’s Pick: Tampa Bay -6; Tampa Bay -255; under 50.5

Mike’s Picks: Tampa Bay -6; Tampa Bay -255

Seattle (-5.5, -240, 44.5) at Washington (+200)

• Rush attempts: —
• Td per pass attempt: Seattle
• Pass yds/att: Seattle
• Point Differential: Seattle
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Washington
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Washington
• Turnover margin: Seattle
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
• Record in close games: Seattle

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Seattle -5.5; Seattle -240

Mike’s Pick(s): Washington -5.5; Seattle -240

San Francisco (-3, -160, 45) at Dallas (+140)

• Rush attempts: San Francisco
• Td per pass attempt: —
• Pass yds/att: San Francisco
• Point Differential: San Francisco
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: San Francisco
• Rushing yds allowed/gm: San Francisco
• Turnover margin: San Francisco
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
• Record in close games: Dallas

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): San Francisco -3; San Francisco -160

Mike’s Pick(s): San Francisco -3; San Francisco -160

New England (+1, +119, 41.5) at Miami (-139)

• Rush attempts: New England
• Td per pass attempt: Miami
• Pass yds/att: Miami
• Point Differential: Miami
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Miami
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Miami
• Turnover margin: Miami
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
• Record in close games: —

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Miami -1; Miami -139

Mike’s Pick(s): Miami -1; Miami -139

Jacksonville (+13, +580, 47.5) at Baltimore (-800)

• Rush attempts: Baltimore
• Td per pass attempt: Baltimore
• Pass yds/att: Baltimore
• Point Differential: Baltimore
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Baltimore
• Turnover margin: Baltimore
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Jacksonville
• Record in close games: Baltimore

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +13; Baltimore -800; under 47.5

Mike’s Pick(s): Jacksonville +13; Baltimore -800; under 47.5

Houston (+7, +271, 51) at Indianapolis (-326)

• Rush attempts: Indianapolis
• Td per pass attempt: Houston
• Pass yds/att: Houston
• Point Differential: Indianapolis
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Indianapolis
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Indianapolis
• Turnover margin: Indianapolis
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
• Record in close games: Indianapolis

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Indianapolis -7; Indianapolis -326; under 51

Mike’s Pick(s): Indianapolis -7; Indianapolis -326

Detroit (+11, +450, 51.5) at Tennessee (-600)

• Rush attempts: Tennessee
• Td per pass attempt: Tennessee
• Pass yds/att: Tennessee
• Point Differential: Tennessee
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tennessee
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Tennessee
• Turnover margin: Tennessee
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Tennessee
• Record in close games: Detroit

Kwaisi’s Pick: Detroit +11; Tennessee -600

Mike’s Pick: Tennessee -11; Tennessee -600

12/20/20 – 4:05 pm: Philadelphia (+7, +227, 49.5) at Arizona (-267)

• Rush attempts: Arizona
• Td per pass attempt: Arizona
• Pass yds/att: Arizona
• Point Differential: Arizona
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Arizona
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Arizona
• Turnover margin: Arizona
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
• Record in close games: Philadelphia

Kwaisi’s Pick: Arizona -7; Arizona -267

Mike’s Pick: Philadelphia +7; Arizona -267

Jets (+17, +1100, 44) at Rams (-2500)

• Rush attempts: Rams
• Td per pass attempt: Rams
• Pass yds/att: Rams
• Point Differential: Rams
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Rams
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Rams
• Turnover Margin: Rams
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Rams
• Record in close games: Rams

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Rams -17; Rams -2500

Mike’s Pick(s): Rams -17; Rams -2500; under 44

12/20/20 – 4:25 pm: Kansas City (-3, -160, 51.5) at New Orleans (+140)

• Rush attempts: New Orleans
• Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
• Pass yds/att: Kansas City
• Point Differential: Kansas City
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
• Rush yds allowed/gm: New Orleans
• Turnover margin: Kansas City
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New Orleans
• Record in close games: Kansas City

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): New Orleans +3; Kansas City -160

Mike’s Pick(s): Kansas City +3; Kansas City -160

12/20/20 – 8:20 pm: Cleveland (-4, -210, 45) at Giants (+176)

• Rush attempts: Cleveland
• Td per pass attempt: Cleveland
• Pass yds/att: Cleveland
• Point Differential: Cleveland
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Giants
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Giants
• Turnover margin: Cleveland
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Cleveland
• Record in close games: Cleveland

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cleveland -4; Cleveland -210

Mike’s Pick(s): Cleveland -4; Cleveland -210; under 44

12/21/20 – 8:15 pm: Pittsburgh (-13, -450, 40.5) at Cincinnati (+550)

• Rush attempts: Cincinnati
• Td per pass attempt: Pittsburgh
• Pass yds/att: Pittsburgh
• Point Differential: Pittsburgh
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Pittsburgh
• Rush yds allowed/gm: Pittsburgh
• Turnover margin: Pittsburgh
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Pittsburgh
• Record in close games: Pittsburgh

Kwaisi’s Pick(s): Cincinnati +13; Pittsburgh -450

Mike’s Pick(s): Pittsburgh -13; Pittsburgh -450

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