If I were a betting man, these would be my NFL plays for this Sunday 9/20/20. Statistics and analysis courtesy of Team Rankings, The Football Database, and The Football Outsiders.

Denver Broncos (+7.5, +265, 40.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-330)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Pittsburgh
• Rush attempts: Pittsburgh
• Td per pass attempt: Pittsburgh
• Pass yds/att: —
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Pittsburgh
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Pittsburgh
• Record in close games: Pittsburgh
• Point differential: Pittsburgh

Pick: Pittsburgh -7.5; Pittsburgh -330

Buffalo Bills (-5.5, -245, 41) at Miami Dolphins (+205)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Buffalo
• Rush attempts: Buffalo
• Td per pass attempt: Buffalo
• Pass yds/att: Buffalo
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
• Turnover margin: Buffalo
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Miami
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: Buffalo

Pick: Buffalo -5.5; Buffalo -245

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5, +310, 44) at Tennessee Titans (-390)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Jacksonville
• Rush attempts: Tennessee
• Td per pass attempt: Jacksonville
• Pass yds/att: Jacksonville
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tennessee
• Turnover margin: Jacksonville
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Tennessee
• Record in close games: Tennessee
• Point differential: Jacksonville

Pick: Jacksonville +8.5; Jacksonville +310

Detroit Lions (+6, +220, 49.5) at Green Bay Packers (-270)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Green Bay
• Rush attempts: Green Bay
• Td per pass attempt: Green Bay
• Pass yds/att: Green Bay
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Detroit
• Turnover margin: Green Bay
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Green Bay
• Record in close games: Green Bay
• Point differential: Green Bay

Pick: Green Bay -6; Green Bay -270

Los Angeles Rams (pk, 45.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

• Rush yds allowed per game: Philadelphia
• Rush attempts: Los Angeles
• Td per pass attempt: Philadelphia
• Pass yds/att: Los Angeles
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Philadelphia
• Turnover margin: Los Angeles
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
• Record in close games: Los Angeles
• Point differential: Los Angeles

Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Carolina Panthers (+8.5, +310, 47.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-390)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Tampa Bay
• Rush attempts: Carolina
• Td per pass attempt: Tampa Bay
• Pass yds/att: Carolina
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
• Turnover margin: Carolina
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Tampa Bay
• Record in close games: Tampa Bay
• Point differential: Carolina

Pick: Carolina +8.5; Tampa Bay (-390)

New York Giants (+5.5, +200, 42) at Chicago Bears (-240)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Chicago
• Rush attempts: Chicago
• Td per pass attempt: Chicago
• Pass yds/att: New York Giants
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chicago
• Turnover margin: Chicago
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
• Record in close games: Chicago
• Point differential: Chicago

Pick: Chicago -5.5; Chicago -240

Minnesota Vikings (+3, +150, 49) at Indianapolis Colts (-170)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Indianapolis
• Rush attempts: —
• Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
• Pass yds/att: Minnesota
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Minnesota
• Turnover margin: Minnesota
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: Indianapolis

Pick: Minnesota +3; Minnesota +150

Atlanta Falcons (+4, +180, 54) at Dallas Cowboys (-220)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Atlanta
• Rush attempts: Dallas
• Td per pass attempt: Atlanta
• Pass yds/att: Atlanta
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Dallas
• Turnover margin: Dallas
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: Dallas

Pick: Atlanta +4

San Francisco 49ers (-7, -320, 41.5) at New York Jets (+260)

• Rush yds allowed per game: New York Jets
• Rush attempts: San Francisco
• Td per pass attempt: San Francisco
• Pass yds/att: San Francisco
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: San Francisco
• Turnover margin: San Francisco
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New York Jets
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: San Francisco

Pick: New York Jets +7; San Francisco -320

Washington Football Team (+7, +250, 46.5) at Arizona Cardinals (-310)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Washington
• Rush attempts: Arizona
• Td per pass attempt: Washington
• Pass yds/att: Arizona
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Washington
• Turnover margin: Washington
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Arizona
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: Washington

Pick: Washington +7; Washington +250

Kansas City Chiefs (-8, -400, 47) at Los Angeles Chargers (+320)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Kansas City
• Rush attempts: Los Angeles Chargers
• Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
• Pass yds/att: Los Angeles Chargers
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Los Angeles Chargers
• Turnover margin: Los Angeles Chargers
• Fumble Recovery Rate: —
• Record in close games: Los Angeles Chargers
• Point differential: Kansas City

Pick: Los Angeles +8; Los Angeles +320

Baltimore Ravens (-7, -330, 50) at Houston Texans (+265)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Baltimore
• Rush attempts: Baltimore
• Td per pass attempt: Baltimore
• Pass yds/att: Baltimore
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
• Turnover margin: Baltimore
• Fumble Recovery Rate: —
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: Baltimore

Pick: Baltimore – 7; Baltimore -330

New England Patriots (+4, +170, 44.5) at Seattle Seahawks (-200)

• Rush yds allowed per game: Seattle
• Rush attempts: New England
• Td per pass attempt: Seattle
• Pass yds/att: Seattle
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New England
• Turnover margin: —
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Seattle
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: Seattle

Pick: Seattle -4; Seattle (-200)

Monday Night: New Orleans Saints (-5.5, -240, 49) at Las Vegas Raiders (+200)

• Rush yds allowed per game: New Orleans
• Rush attempts: New Orleans
• Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
• Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New Orleans
• Turnover margin: New Orleans
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Las Vegas
• Record in close games: —
• Point differential: New Orleans

Pick: New Orleans -5.5; New Orleans -240

9/20/20 Five Team Favorite Parlay

• Baltimore -330
• Chicago -200
• Green Bay -270
• Buffalo -245
• Pittsburgh -330

Pays approximately 3.64 to 1

• Baltimore -7
• Chicago -5.5
• Green Bay -6
• Buffalo -5.5
• Pittsburgh -7.5

Pays approximately 29.65 to 1

9/20/20 Four Team Underdog Parlay

• Los Angeles Chargers +320
• Jacksonville +310
• Minnesota +150
• Washington +250

Pays approximately 142.32 to 1

• Los Angeles Chargers +8
• Jacksonville +8.5
• Minnesota +3
• Washington +7

Pays approximately 12.07 to 1

9/20/20 Combined Nine Team Parlay

• Baltimore -330
• Chicago -200
• Green Bay -270
• Buffalo -245
• Pittsburgh -330
• Los Angeles Chargers +320
• Jacksonville +310
• Minnesota +150
• Washington +250

Pays approximately 665-1

• Baltimore -7
• Chicago -5.5
• Green Bay -6
• Buffalo -5.5
• Pittsburgh -7.5
• Los Angeles Chargers +8
• Jacksonville +8.5
• Minnesota +3
• Washington +7

Pays approximately 177.12-1

9/20/20 Favorites and Underdogs

DeShaun Watson against Baltimore is the biggest fear amongst our favorites. As far as our upsets are concerned, it’s tough to see the Chargers beating the Chiefs though divisional battles are always tough. The divisional battle aspect also is of some concern in for Green Bay against Detroit.

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