If I Were A Betting Man: NFL Sunday 9/13/20

We went 2-1 and are up 90 units after Thursday’s open, and are looking forward to NFL Sunday 9/13/20. Our system is based on nine identified criteria for winning football in the NFL (2020 will use 2019 stats for first 4 weeks), and both hot (80%) and cold trends (20%) with both teams individually as well as in their head to head matchup. Each pick is a wager of 100 units.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20

Miami (+6.5; o/u 41.5; +250) at New England (-300)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: New England
• Rush attempts: New England
• Td per pass attempt: Miami
• Pass yds/att: New England
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: New England
• Turnover margin: New England
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New England
• Record in close games: Miami
• Point differential: New England

Against The Spread

• Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September
• Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1.
• Patriots are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Patriots are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
• Patriots are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
• Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
• Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Over/Under

• Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games overall.
• Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games as an underdog
• Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in September.

Head to Head

• Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings in New England.
• Home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. New England (-300)
2. Miami (+6.5)
3. Over (41.5)

Miami decided not to Tank for Tua and still got him. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be starting this one though.

The Patriots have had 5 defensive starters opt out due to COVID-19 while replacing GOAT Brady with Cam Newton. Brian Flores is a Bill Belichick disciple so expect the Dolphins to be prepared, but the record of the students against the sensei has been less than stellar. It’s Week 1 so there will be sloppiness, but I expect the Pats to unleash Cam and win close.

Cleveland (+7.5; o/u 47.5; +280) at Baltimore (-360)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Baltimore
• Rush attempts: Baltimore
• Td per pass attempt: Baltimore
• Pass yds/att: Baltimore
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Baltimore
• Turnover margin: Baltimore
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Baltimore
• Record in close games: Baltimore
• Point differential: Baltimore

Against The Spread

• Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.
• Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
• Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Baltimore (+360)
2. Baltimore (+6.5)

New York Jets (+6.5; o/u 39.5; +250) at Buffalo (-300)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: New York Jets
• Rush attempts: Buffalo
• Td per pass attempt: Even
• Pass yds/att: Buffalo
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Buffalo
• Turnover margin: Buffalo
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Buffalo
• Record in close games: New York Jets
• Point differential: Buffalo

Against The Spread

• Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September

Over/Under

• Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 games overall.
• Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC.
• Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games in September.
• Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games on turf.
• Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 home games.
• Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games overall.
• Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games in Week 1.
• Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 vs. AFC.

Head to Head

• Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Buffalo (-300)
2. Under (39.5)

Las Vegas (-3; o/u 47.5; -150) at Carolina (+130)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Las Vegas
• Rush attempts: Las Vegas
• Td per pass attempt: Las Vegas
• Pass yds/att: Las Vegas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Carolina
• Turnover margin: Las Vegas
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Carolina
• Record in close games: Las Vegas
• Point differential: Las Vegas

Against The Spread

• Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
• Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Panthers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
• Panthers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog
• Panthers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• Panthers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Over/Under

• Under is 5-0 in Raiders last 5 road games.
• Under is 7-1-1 in Raiders last 9 games as a road favorite.
• Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games overall.
• Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games on grass.
• Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games overall.
• Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 home games.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Las Vegas (-150)
2. Las Vegas (-3)

Seattle (-1.5; o/u 49; -125) at Atlanta (+105)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Atlanta
• Rush attempts: Seattle
• Td per pass attempt: Seattle
• Pass yds/att: Seattle
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Seattle
• Turnover margin: Seattle
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Atlanta
• Record in close games: Seattle
• Point differential: Seattle

Against The Spread

• Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
• Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass
• Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
• Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.

Over/Under

• Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games as a home underdog.

Head to Head

• Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Seahawks (-125)
2. Under 49

Philadelphia (-5.5; o/u 42; -240) at Washington (+200)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Philadelphia
• Rush attempts: Philadelphia
• Td per pass attempt: Washington
• Pass yds/att: Philadelphia
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Philadelphia
• Turnover margin: Washington
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Philadelphia
• Record in close games: Washington
• Point differential: Philadelphia

Against The Spread

• Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
• Football Team are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.

Over/Under

• Over is 5-1 in Football Team last 6 vs. NFC East.

Head to Head

• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Philadelphia (-240)
2. Eagles -5.5
3. Over 42

Chicago (+2.5; o/u 42.5; +120) at Detroit (-240)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Chicago
• Rush attempts: Detroit
• Td per pass attempt: Detroit
• Pass yds/att: Detroit
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Chicago
• Turnover margin: Chicago
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Chicago
• Record in close games: Chicago
• Point differential: Chicago

Against The Spread

• Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
• Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

Over/Under

• Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games as an underdog.
• Over is 12-1 in Lions last 13 games in Week 1.
• Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 home games.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

No play

Indianapolis (-8; o/u 45; -400) at Washington (+320)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Indianapolis
• Rush attempts: Indianapolis
• Td per pass attempt: Jacksonville
• Pass yds/att: Jacksonville
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Indianapolis
• Turnover margin: Indianapolis
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Indianapolis
• Record in close games: Jacksonville
• Point differential: Indianapolis

Against The Spread

• Colts are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 1.

Over/Under

• Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games in Week 1.
• Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games as a road favorite.

Head to Head

• Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville.
• Colts are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
• Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Indianapolis (-400)
2. Jacksonville (+8)
3. Over 45

Green Bay (+2.5; o/u 44.5; +120) at Minnesota (-140)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Minnesota
• Rush attempts: Minnesota
• Td per pass attempt: Minnesota
• Pass yds/att: Minnesota
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Minnesota
• Turnover margin: Minnesota
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Minnesota
• Record in close games: Green Bay
• Point differential: Minnesota

Against The Spread

• Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.

Over/Under

• Under is 9-0 in Packers last 9 vs. NFC North.

Head to Head

• Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
• Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Minnesota (-140)
2. Minnesota (-2.5)
3. Under 44.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3; o/u 41.5; -150) at Cincinnati (+130)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Los Angeles Chargers
• Rush attempts: Cincinnati
• Td per pass attempt: ————
• Pass yds/att: Los Angeles Chargers
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Los Angeles Chargers
• Turnover margin: Cincinnati
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Cincinnati
• Record in close games: Los Angeles Chargers
• Point differential: Los Angeles Chargers

Against The Spread

• Chargers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1.
• Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1.
• Chargers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Chargers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.

Over/Under

• Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 vs. AFC.
• Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
• Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games in Week 1.
• Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 road games.
• Under is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games on fieldturf.

Head to Head

• Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
• Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Los Angeles Chargers (-150)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

Arizona (+7; o/u 48; +250) at San Francisco (-300)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: San Francisco
• Rush attempts: San Francisco
• Td per pass attempt: San Francisco
• Pass yds/att: San Francisco
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: San Francisco
• Turnover margin: San Francisco
• Fumble Recovery Rate: San Francisco
• Record in close games: San Francisco
• Point differential: San Francisco

Against The Spread

• Cardinals are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
• Cardinals are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Over/Under

• Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games in Week 1.
• Over is 4-0-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. NFC West.

Head to Head

• Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Cardinals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
• Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. San Francisco (-300)
2. Arizona (+7)

Tampa Bay (+3.5; o/u 48; +160) at New Orleans (-180)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Tampa Bay
• Rush attempts: Tampa Bay
• Td per pass attempt: New Orleans
• Pass yds/att: Tampa Bay
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Tampa Bay
• Turnover margin: New Orleans
• Fumble Recovery Rate: New Orleans
• Record in close games: New Orleans
• Point differential: New Orleans

Against The Spread

• Buccaneers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
• Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1.

Over/Under

• Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 vs. NFC South.
• Over is 10-1 in Buccaneers last 11 vs. NFC.
• Over is 7-1 in Buccaneers last 8 games as an underdog.
• Over is 12-2 in Buccaneers last 14 games overall.
• Over is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games in Week 1.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. New Orleans (-180)
2. Over (48)

Dallas (-2.5; o/u 51.5; -135) at Los Angeles Rams (+115)

Winning Football

• Rush yds allowed per game: Dallas
• Rush attempts: Dallas
• Td per pass attempt: Dallas
• Pass yds/att: Dallas
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: Los Angeles Rams
• Turnover margin: Los Angeles Rams
• Fumble Recovery Rate: Dallas
• Record in close games: Los Angeles Rams
• Point differential: Dallas

Against The Spread

• Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.

Over/Under

• Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 vs. NFC.

Head to Head

• Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL Sunday 9/13/20 Picks

1. Dallas (-135)
2. Dallas (-2.5)
3. Over 51.5

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