I Got You: NFL Week 8 Investment
We are 46-47 on the season after going 3-7 last week. We are proponents of dollar cost averaging as we are long term investors; therefore, we invest the same amount no matter the particular interest.
Remember, it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports investing at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%). That is, 52.4% is the cutoff for earning profits. A noticeable return is made at 55% (5 wins and 4 losses). Our goal is 57% (4 wins and 3 losses)
It’s nice thinking about potential gains, but it’s better to be conservative and think of the potential risks. If you manage the risk, the profit will take care of itself. Selectivity is key, meaning unless we see a material edge with an investment, we will pass. Return on investment is the metric we use to evaluate the attractiveness of an investment.
Week 8 Investments
Miami at New England: Miami 340
Dan “Man” Campbell has reinvigorated Miami. Tom Brady, while dominating the division, has had trouble with this division foe.
San Francisco at St. Louis: San Francisco 320; Over 39.5
Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde are two young backs that will power their teams’ offenses. Foles and Kaepernick are not great, but i think Foles will make more costly turnovers as Kaep is afraid to throw the ball.
Minnesota at Chicago: Minnesota -128; Minnesota -1; Over 42.5
Bridgewater to Stefon Diggs is the new connection. Adrian Peterson is still the centerpiece, and Cutler should provide enough big plays for both teams to push the total over,
New York Jets at Oakland: New York Jets -140; New York Jets -2; Over 44
The trip out west is troubling, but the Raiders should letdown after a huge home win against San Diego last week. The Jets now need to win to keep pace in the east especially if Miami wins on Thursday night as we expect them to.