I Got You: NFL Week 7 Investment
We are 43-40 on the season after going 9-2 last week. We are proponents of dollar cost averaging as we are long term investors; therefore, we invest the same amount no matter the particular interest.
Remember, it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports investing at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%). That is, 52.4% is the cutoff for earning profits. A noticeable return is made at 55% (5 wins and 4 losses). Our goal is 57% (4 wins and 3 losses)
It’s nice thinking about potential gains, but it’s better to be conservative and think of the potential risks. If you manage the risk, the profit will take care of itself. Selectivity is key, meaning unless we see a material edge with an investment, we will pass. Return on investment is the metric we use to evaluate the attractiveness of an investment.
Week 7 Investments
Buffalo at Jacksonville: Buffalo -6; Over 42
Not sure if Jacksonville has ever won one of these early games overseas. Jacksonville should be able to score points as the vaunted Buffalo defense led by Rex Ryan is only ranked 16th in the league.
Atlanta at Tennessee: Atlanta -3.5
This is Zach Mettenberger’s opportunity to showcase for other teams. I like Atlanta here because it’s Zach Mettenberger.
New Orleans at Indianapolis: Indianapolis -4.5
Indianapolis showed improvement against New England in a loss last week. Provided Pagano can stay out of the way, this should be an easy win at home for Indianapolis.
Minnesota at Detroit: Minnesota -145; Minnesota -2.5
Chicago was a little worse than Detroit last week to get them off their 0 for. Still, Adran Peterson and rookie Stefon Diggs should be enough for the Minnesota this week.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City: Pittsburgh -2
Pittsburgh may have solved their woes until Ben can return. Does a Jamaal Charles-less Kansas City led by Alex Smith prevails over Pittsburgh? Neither do we.
Cleveland at St. Louis: Cleveland 200
While Todd Gurley and the defense has been impressive, Nick Foles has not. While Cleveland is a quarterback and some skill positions away, I like their defense to turnover Foles.
New York Jets at New England: New York Jets 335
The Jets have big receivers, a strong running game, and a smart quarterback along with a stingy defense. The Pats are vulnerable defensively. I don’t think this is a big upset as the Jets have better players.