I Got You: NFL Week 6 Investment
Whether Luck or Hasselbeck, we like the Colts in Week 6 against the Pats.
34-38 on the season after winning money last week going 6-6. With the money line investing, we are actually up a little on the year in spite of an overall losing record. We are proponents of dollar cost averaging as we are long term investors; therefore, we invest the same amount no matter the interest.
Remember, it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports investing at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%). That is, 52.4% is the cutoff for earning profits. A noticeable return is made at 55% (5 wins and 4 losses). Our goal is 57% (4 wins and 3 losses)
It’s nice thinking about potential gains, but it’s better to be conservative and think of the potential risks. If you manage the risk, the profit will take care of itself. Selectivity is key, meaning unless we see a material edge with an investment, we will pass. Return on investment is the metric we use to evaluate the attractiveness of an investment.
Week 6 Investments
Washington at New York Jets: Over 40.5
The Jets should be prepared having two weeks after the bye. The return of DeSean Jackson should be a boon to the Redskins offense.
Chicago at Detroit: Over 43
I expect Matthew Stafford to respond after his benching. The Bears should receive a boost if Eddie Royal and Alshon Jeffery can return.
Denver at Cleveland: Cleveland +4; Over 42
Cleveland has found something in the short passing game which has enabled Josh McCown to dominate against the blitz. A hobbled Joe Haden should be just what Peyton Manning needs to get right.
Houston at Jacksonville: Houston -1; Over 43
The Houston advantage on defense should enable them to secure a win. Blake Bortles and the offense showed that they can score points in bunches.
Carolina at Seattle: Over 41
This isn’t the Seattle defense of the last two years as andy Dalton showed us. Cam Newton is also showing us that he can make bricks without straw.
New England at Indianapolis: Indianapolis +7.5; Under 55.5
If Luck is healthy, this is the juiciest line of the week. I also expect both teams to try to control the clock with long drives.
New York Giants at Philadelphia: New York +3.5; Under 50
The Giants have a slight advantage in every NFC East matchup because they have the quarterback advantage. The Eagles are not sustaining enough offense in spite of what they did last week against New Orleans.
