I Got You: NFL Week 3 Investment
Blake Bortles and the Jags shocking the Pats has great return on investment.
10-2 is a great way to start the season. Remember, it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports investing at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%). That is, 52.4% is the cutoff for earning profits. A noticeable return is made at 55% (5 wins and 4 losses). Our goal is 57% (4 wins and 3 losses)
It’s nice thinking about potential gains, but it’s better to be conservative and think of the potential risks. If you manage the risk, the profit will take care of itself. Selectivity is key, meaning unless we see a material edge with an investment, we will pass. Return on investment is the performance we use to evaluate the efficiency of an investment. The first 3 weeks, we will make small investments across the market. We will zone in Week 4.
Week 3 Picks
Atlanta at Dallas: Dallas 105; Dallas +2; Over 45
Dallas still has the offensive line intact and Weeden was a first round pick. Look for a big play by the defense to boost the over.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Tennessee 160; Tennessee +3.5
Something is wrong with Indianapolis and something is wrong with Andrew Luck.
Oakland at Cleveland: Cleveland -180; Cleveland -3.5
Classic letdown game traveling across the country after a big win for the young Raiders.
Jacksonville at New England: Jacksonville 775
They will run the ball and control the clock with Yeldon, be opportunistic with big plays from Yeldon, and keep Yeldon on the sideline.
New Orleans at Carolina: Over 45
Cam and Brees is just another battle in the division with the best quarterbacks in the league.
Philadelphia at New York Jets: Under 45.5
The Eagles are a mess.
Tampa Bay at Houston: Houston -275; Houston -6.5; Over 40.5
Clowney and Watt should make things difficult for Jameis. He will get his though.
San Diego at Minnesota: San Diego +114
Minnesota lets down a little allowing Rivers to get them in the end.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis: Pittsburgh -125; Pittsburgh +1
I’ll take the better quarterback.
San Francisco at Arizona: San Francisco 215; San Francisco +6
NFC West battle that will come down to the wire.
Buffalo at Miami: Buffalo +132
Buffalo is the better team.
Chicago at Seattle: Chicago +14.5; Over 43.5
I expect a close game. Who does Seattle blowout really other than Peyton in the Super Bowl?
Denver at Detroit: Detroit +3.5
This is Detroit’s last stand.
