I Got You: NFL Week 2 Investment
It only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports investing at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%). That is, 52.4% is the cutoff for earning profits. A noticeable return is made at 55% (5 wins and 4 losses). Our goal is 57%
There is variance in sports investing, as there is in most investments, and as with other zero-sum games, only a small percentage of investors are materially successful. It’s nice thinking about potential gains, but it’s better to be conservative and think of the potential risks. If you manage the risk, the profit will take care of itself. We make our decisions at the very beginning (Sunday night/Monday morning) or the very end of the session (Sunday afternoon). The earlier (where savvy investors go) or later (where the informed public goes) the better.
Selectivity is key, meaning unless we see a material edge with an investment, we will pass. Return on investment is the performance we use to evaluate the efficiency of an investment. It is perhaps the best way to analyze the success of a system. Without understanding the return you can expect for your investment, you probably won’t be successful. The first 3 weeks, we will make small investments across the market. We will zone in Week 4.
Sports investors tend to make their decisions based on things like emotion and gut feelings rather than research, discipline, and the long view of their financial investment. Investing in too many games and failure to manage your account are other reasons for failure. There will be more in depth analysis come Week 4.
Week 2 Picks
Denver vs. Kansas City – Over 42
Houston vs. Carolina – Over 40
Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans – Over 47.5
San Francisco v. Pittsburgh – Over 45
Detroit v. Minnesota – Under 43; Detroit +125
Tennessee v. Cleveland – Cleveland (+1)
St. Louis v. Washington – Washington +155
Dallas v. Philadelphia – Under 55.5; Dallas +5
Seattle v. Green Bay – Green Bay (-3.5)
New York v. indianapolis – Under 47