Betting Markets Show Post-Debate Boost for Trump In Pennsylvania
We have covered how this last debate was a lost opportunity for President Trump for while he performed better, less people watched it than the last debate, and almost ten million less people watched it than the last one which took place in 2016. However, Shawn Tully at Fortune shows us that Trump is receiving a small post-debate boost in Pennsylvania.
At mid-morning on Friday, Biden’s big lead on the gaming sites where bettors wager instantaneously on how the Nashville duel is moving voters stood virtually unchanged from the moment the two candidates took the stage. But in the crucial battleground state that’s a must-win for Trump, the President got a bump.
It’s a gauge of Pennsylvania’s importance that the betting odds of him winning that state and the betting odds of him winning the election have mirrored each other closely (with both bouncing around between 35% and 40% of late). As the Keystone State trends, so do Trump’s odds, almost point by point. In betting on scenarios in which the election is decided by a single state, Pennsylvania is also handicapped as twice as likely to be the decider than second-place Wisconsin.
Trump’s poll numbers in Pennsylvania were dropping leading up to the debate, and that drag was the principal reason for his dwindling prospects on the political gambling sites. But the debate saw a shift in Trump’s favor.
Betting Markets Post-Debate
Data provided by the major betting site PredictIt shows that the shift started in the last 20 minutes of the debate, when Trump and Biden clashed over energy. On PredictIt, at 9 p.m. Eastern time, just before the two candidates faced off, Biden was the favorite by 61% to 39%. At 11 a.m. on Friday, the numbers were precisely the same, holding Biden’s edge pretty much where it’s been for the past couple of weeks.
In the RealClear Politics average of gaming sites, Trump got a tiny lift, going from 35.4% to 36.3% from Oct. 22 to 23. Betfair gave Trump his biggest boost, but that two-point lift raised his line to just 34%.
Post-Debate Betting Markets on Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, however, Trump gained ground—albeit in more of a shuffle than a jump. The morning of the debate, Biden led Trump on PredictIt by 64.5% to 35.8%. By the end of the debate at 10:30 p.m. ET, his advantage had shrunk, 63.1% to 37.9%. By Friday morning, the President hit almost 39% to Biden’s 61%, though Trump had fallen back to 37.5% by noon. Still, the President had gained almost two points from his pre-debate numbers.
Tully asks the right question and it will ultimately be a key in Pennsylvania for both candidates. Will the former VP’s double-down galvanize even more of the hundreds of thousands of Keystone State voters whose livelihoods depend on fracking to go to the polls on Nov. 3? And if those voters turn out in force, will Biden win enough votes in the Philadelphia suburbs, where people like his climate-friendly policies, to offset all or most of any losses in the Western coal regions?