If I Were A Betting Man, This Is What I’d Do: NFL Week 10
This is what I’d do if I were a betting man for Week 9 of the NFL season. My record would be 45-37 (.549) on the season. A skilled handicapper historically hits 55% of games long term. 52% of games won is the break-even point.
If I Were A Betting Man
We now have 9 weeks of results. This is what I’d do if I were betting this week:
Cleveland at Baltimore (-7.5)
The Browns are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 meetings in Baltimore. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. This Ravens fan is taking the Browns in this rivalry game.
Houston at Jacksonville (-2)
The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville. I’ll take the underwhelming Brock Osweiler to improve to 6-3.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-2)
The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York. I’ll take the over in what should be a game full of turnovers between whomever the Jets trot out there and Case Keenum.
Kansas City at Carolina (-3)
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Carolina did not look great last week against the struggling Rams. I’ll take the Chiefs with Alex Smith back.
Chicago at Tampa Bay (+1)
The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay. I like the Bears in the second act of Jay Cutler’s return.
Green Bay at Tennessee (+2.5)
The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Aaron Rodgers vs. Marcus Mariota. I’ll take the over 49.5.
Minnesota at Washington (-2.5)
The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. I like the Vikings and the over 42.
Miami at San Diego (-3.5)
The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego and 12-0 in the last 12 meetings. The home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. In a matchup between two of the hotter teams in the AFC, I like the Chargers at home and the under 48.
San Francisco at Arizona (+13.5)
The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Kaep was explosive last week, but the Niners are still terrible. I’ll take the Cards.
Seattle at New England (-7.5)
The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. I’ll take the over 49 in a matchup between Russell Wilson and Tom Brady.
Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants (pick)
The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. If the Bengals are who they’re supposed to be, they win this game as it is a must.
These would be my picks if I were a betting man. As always, be careful if you gamble and make sure you are responsible.