Orange Barry Goldwater 2016 Is A Huge Gift For Hillary
The presidential election of 1964 was the sixth-most-lopsided presidential election in the history of the United States behind the elections of 1936, 1984, 1972, 1864 and 1980 (in terms of electoral votes; in terms of popular vote, it was the fifth-most). President Lyndon B. Johnson had come to office less than a year earlier following the assassination of his predecessor, John F. Kennedy, and Johnson had successfully associated himself with Kennedy’s popularity. Johnson also successfully painted his opponent, Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, as a right-wing legislator who wanted to abolish the social welfare programs created in the 1930s (such as Social Security). LBJ advocated more such programs, and after 1965, instituted three: Medicare, Medicaid and the War on Poverty.
With these factors working for him, Johnson easily won the Presidency, carrying 44 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. As of 2009, Johnson’s 22.6 percentage-point margin of victory in the popular vote is the fifth-largest such margin in Presidential election history (after the margins of the 1920 election, 1924 election, 1936 election and 1972 election). Johnson won 61.1% of the national popular vote, which remains the highest popular-vote percentage won by a U.S.presidential candidate since 1820. The election is also remembered due to Barry Goldwater and his status as a pioneer in the modern conservative movement.
“What Americans Do Electing POTUS” highlights the math behind Democratic dominance in national campaigns:
Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections. The biggest advantage that the Democrats have is that California went from being a reliably Republican state in presidential elections from 1952 through 1988 into a reliably Democrat state beginning in 1992. The formula to remember for why this is:
1992 + 1988 + Florida = a Democrat in the White House.
That first number represents the ten states with a total of 152 electoral votes that have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since 1992 [California (55) Pennsylvania (20) Illinois (20) Michigan (16) New Jersey (14) Maryland (10) Connecticut (7) Maine (4) Vermont (3) Delaware (3)]. The second number represents the nine states with a total of 90 electoral votes that have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since 1988 [New York (29) Washington (12) Massachusetts (11) Minnesota (10) Wisconsin (10) Oregon (7) Hawaii (4) Rhode Island (4) Washington, D.C. (3)]. Together, those states command 242 electoral votes. If Hillary follows this electoral college precedent that has held since 1992 and also wins Florida (29) or any combination of states yielding 28 votes, she wins with the required 270 votes at 271.
1992 states
The current RealClearPolitics polling averages for those states are:
California – Clinton +17
Pennsylvania – Clinton +4
Illinois – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 16 points in 2012
Michigan – Clinton +8
New Jersey – Clinton +9
Maryland – Clinton +35
Connecticut – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 18 points in 2012
Maine – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 15 points in 2012
Vermont – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 36 points in 2012
Delaware – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 19 points in 2012
Christie is helping Trump in New Jersey, but his obvious goal here is to take Pennsylvania and he is within the margin of error more or less. This is 152 electoral votes of which Trump would like to take 20.
1988 states
The current RealClearPolitics polling averages for those states are:
New York – Clinton +21
Washington – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 14 points in 2012
Massachusetts – Clinton +30
Minnesota – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 8 points in 2012
Wisconsin – Clinton +11
Oregon – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 11 points in 2012
Hawaii – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 43 points in 2012
Rhode Island – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 27 points in 2012
Washington D.C. – No polling average currently though Barack Obama won it by 84 points in 2012
Not really a lot to get here other than a view of the advantage Obama had in these states. Trump did say he can win New York, but polling reveals that to be just one of the many things he says that has no basis in reality. These are 90 electoral votes that Hillary are sure to win. This puts her between 222 and 242 electoral votes, depending on whether Trump wins Pennsylvania.
The current RealClearPolitics polling averages for Florida has Hillary up 2 points or Trump within the margin of error. Trump has to win Florida and Pennsylvania to have any chance of winning this election.
Romney
The current RealClearPolitics polling averages for the states Mitt Romney won in 2012 are:
West Virginia – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 26 points in 2012
North Carolina – Trump +1
South Carolina – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 11 points in 2012
Georgia – Trump +4
Alabama – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 11 points in 2012
Mississippi – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 12 points in 2012
Louisiana – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 17 points in 2012
Texas – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 16 points in 2012
Arizona – Clinton +1
Utah – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 48 points in 2012
Idaho – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 11 points in 2012
Montana – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 13 points in 2012
Wyoming – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 41 points in 2012
North Dakota – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 20 points in 2012
South Dakota – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 18 points in 2012
Nebraska – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 23 points in 2012
Kansas – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 22 points in 2012
Oklahoma – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 34 points in 2012
Missouri – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 10 points in 2012
Arkansas – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 11 points in 2012
Tennessee – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 20 points in 2012
Kentucky – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 23 points in 2012
Indiana – No polling average currently though Mitt Romney won it by 10 points in 2012
We are still very early in the race, but the three states where there is a polling average shows that Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error. In fact, this is the case in Utah, Kansas, Mississippi and Texas.
There is still a lot of information that is unavailable here, but a look inside of Trump’s “campaign” is where the trepidation of Barry Goldwater reincarnate resides. Forget Florida and Pennsylvania, if Trump does not improve his nationwide campaign operation, he might not get to 100 electoral votes.
Barry Goldwater 2016
Trump represents the end of Barry Goldwater’s conservative movement. He has successfully unified and given a platform to the racists and Birchers that William F. Buckley largely expelled from that movement. This will be a recipe for disaster in a general election similar to Goldwater. Barry Goldwater was authentic. Trump is many things. Trump is actually whatever you want him to be.
Barry Goldwater is not to be insulted by being linked to Trump ideologically, but purely in electoral outcome. Barry Goldwater had a core set of beliefs that had nothing to do with him and everything to do with ideas about governing and the Constitution. He inspired millions because of those ideas.
Trump has a core set of emotions, all of which make him the central feature of his campaign. Trump’s inspiration of millions is a matter of stunted adolescence. With that being said, the evidence does suggest that Trump will likely suffer a Goldwater like defeat for Republicans in the general election.
The electorate’s demographics are even more unfavorable for the GOP in 2016 than they were in 2012. Nonwhite voters constituted 28% of the electorate in 2012, but in 2016 about 31% of the electorate are minorities, meaning the potential ceiling for minority turnout is even higher.
The “Trump Effect” has already sparked a huge increase in voter registration by Latinos. The pace of registration is so great that it is projected that almost 2 million more Latinos will vote in 2016 than voted in 2012. Moreover, the surge in Latino registration is occurring in key states, like Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Texas. Republicans must at least get 30% of Latino voters to have any chance of winning the presidency. In a diverse nation, Trump has little hope of winning the presidency when 84% of nonwhite voters won’t vote for him.
Polls indicate that Hillary could beat Trump among women by 40 points, an astounding margin without precedent in American political history. A gender gap half that size would deliver the presidency to Hillary in a massive landslide. It would also lead to crushing losses for Republicans in congressional races.
Despite his deep unpopularity with most women and minorities, Trump hopes to somehow change the electoral college map by winning blue states like New York, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But the raw vote totals suggest otherwise. Clinton has won far more votes than Trump in the blue state primaries. [Example: In the April 19 New York primary election, Trump won the GOP contest with 524,000 votes while Clinton won the Democratic primary with over 1 million votes. The same was true in Illinois, where Clinton won more than 1 million votes in the Democratic primary and Trump won 556,000 votes in the GOP primary.] Clinton also won more votes than Trump in other blue states such as Michigan, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania.
The most disturbing trends towards a Barry Goldwater like outcome is that Trump could change the map in the red states–by losing some of them to Clinton. Clinton carried more votes in the Democratic primaries than Trump did in the Republican primaries. For example, Clinton won more votes than Trump in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, Louisiana and Texas. Changing the “Sunbelt demographics” is creating cracks in the Republican South. Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and he won Virginia and Florida in both 2008 and 2012. With Trump as her opponent, Clinton could very likely win all three states in 2016 and perhaps other Southern states as well.
Trump turned off most if not all the big donors (which his campaign desperately needs) and has no organization in the states. Trump doesn’t seem to understand or care that it’ll take more than his rallies to win this thing. What worked for an insular GOP primary is not going to work going into a general election. His relationship with the Republican National Committee — a group he is counting on to fulfill those basic campaign functions he’s not bothering to — has badly deteriorated as well.
Trump has failed to professionalize his seat-of-the-pants primary campaign into an operation that looks anything like past major party general election operations. Despite having wrapped up the nomination over six weeks ago, Trump has barely spent any time campaigning in swing states. Additionally, his failure to fundraise means Trump doesn’t have the cash to make massive ad buys in swing states — even though Hillary Clinton is.
How badly is Trump running his campaign? Priorities USA, has aired ads in battleground states portraying him as disrespectful and even offensive to women resulting in 63% of women saying they could never vote for Trump. Those ads have gone unanswered because Trump is too busy struggling with fundamental staff moves, like naming a political director, and with raising money as donors decline to lend their names to fundraising events. As this lack of organization reveals itself state-by-state, week-by-week, over the next 5 months of the campaign, Barry Goldwater is the future. Ironically, as a 17-year-old, Hillary Clinton supported Barry Goldwater for President. I don’t think she would ever imagine 52 years later that she would be the beneficiary of a Barry Goldwater-like campaign.
