(9/10/20): Houston Texans (+9; +350; 54.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-500)
Image: CBS Sports
Our picks for 9/10/20 are based on nine identified criteria for winning football in the NFL (2020 will be based on 2019 stats for first 4 weeks), and both hot (80%) and cold trends (20%) with both teams individually as well as in their head to head matchup. We bet in units of 100.
Winning Football on 9/10/20
- Rush yds allowed per game: Houston
- Rush attempts: Houston
- Td per pass attempt: Kansas City
- Pass yds/att: Kansas City
- Defense Adjusted Value Over Average: Kansas City
- Turnover margin: Kansas City
- Fumble Recovery Rate: Houston
- Record in close games: Houston
- Point differential: Kansas City
Against The Spread 9/10/20
- Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
- Chiefs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Secondary Against The Spread
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
- Chiefs are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games on grass.
- Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
Against The Spread Concerns
- Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 head to head meetings.
Over/Under for 9/10/20
- Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games in Week 1.
- Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in September.
Secondary Over/Under
- Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 Thursday games.
Over/Under Concerns
- Under is 41-20-1 in Chiefs last 62 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 road games.
- Under is 11-4-1 in Texans last 16 games in September.
- Under is 11-5 in Texans last 16 games on grass.
Picks for 9/10/20
In order of certainty:
- Kansas City (-500)
- Kansas City (-9)
- Over (54.5)
A great opening night (9/10/20) for the NFL. The last time these two teams faced off, the Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead only to see the Chiefs score 41 straight en rout to a 51-31 victory.
Since then, the Chiefs have won the Super bowl, drafted Clyde Edwards-Hellaire, and made quarterback Patrick Mahomes the highest paid player in NFL history. The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins, signed Brandin Cooks to replace him, and made quarterback DeShaun Watson the second highest paid player in NFL history.
The Texans have speedy wideouts all over the field in Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and Kenny Stills. While there may be some sloppy football due to no preseason, we still expect to see points scored. Kansas City is the team; ironically, because they have the better defense and running game.
