2016 Nonvoters Voting Democrat in 2020 Thus Far
Allan Smith of NBC News reports So far, more than 20 percent of the early vote nationwide has come from 2016 nonvoters, according to data from the NBC News Decision Desk/TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm.
With 77 million having already cast early votes — a number that the Decision Desk projects could hit 100 million by Tuesday’s election — more than 17.5 million of them have come from 2016 nonvoters including those not yet eligible to vote.
Polls show independents overall breaking toward 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who holds a large polling lead with early voters in key states, while President Donald Trump maintains a significant advantage among those who have yet to vote.
More than 26 percent of these new or nonvoters skew younger, between 18-29 years old, with a good chunk coming from the youngest in that group who are voting in their first election. Polling shows that age group is Biden’s best demographic and has the highest percentage of voters who said they planned to cast an early ballot.
More than 22 percent comes from voters between 50-64 while seniors account for another 20 percent. Democrats are leading with this key demographic in several critical swing states, including Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the Decision Desk/Target Smart. Republicans maintain a slim advantage in Georgia and larger leads in Ohio and Texas.
In Pennsylvania, shockingly, more than 331,000 registered Democrats in the state who did not or could not vote in 2016 have cast ballots so far, compared with just more than 95,000 Republicans. Another 78,000-plus of these voters who are unaffiliated with either party have voted there, too.