Racial Demographics Of Hillary and Bernie
The racial demographics of the Democratic frontrunners
I think it’s difficult to admit, but obvious to see, that Democrats are polarized by race in the primary. The results, thus far, can’t be ignored.
Racial Demographics
Bernie has won Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma. Here are the racial demographics of each state:
Maine:
New Hampshire:
Vermont:
Michigan:
Minnesota:
Nebraska:
Kansas:
Colorado:
Oklahoma:
What we see are states that are between 75% and 95% white. By comparison, here are the demographics of the country:
United States:
Bernie has not approached winning any kind of state with the demographics matching those of the United States we live in. The closest states that match that diversity he’s won are Colorado which is overweighted Latinos and Michigan which has double digit black population (whom Bernie lost 65-35). Every state, even including those two, he’s won has a white population above the national average.
Hillary has won Massachusetts, Iowa, Nevada, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. Here are the racial demographics of those states:
Massachusetts:
Iowa:
Nevada:
Texas:
Louisiana:
Mississippi:
Alabama:
Georgia:
South Carolina:
Virginia:
Tennessee:
Every state hillary has won has a minority population that reaches double digits except for Iowa. The closest state that matches the population demographics of the country at large has been Texas which has double digit populations of blacks and latinos. Hillary won the state going away.
The Danger
It’s troubling when Democrats say that voters in the south or winning the south does not matter because these are states that won’t be won in the general election. This is not only flawed, but perpetuates the idea that black voters do not count or matter.
In 2008, Barack Obama won South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland, DC and North Carolina. No one concerned themselves about the Democrats ability to win these states in a general election. Hillary has won these states which have had primaries and is favored in the rest. In the general election, Obama only won Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida (Hillary won that primary).
Outside of the south, Obama won Montana, Oregon, Wyoming, Vermont, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Maine, Nebraska, Washington, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Utah and Iowa. Bernie has won Vermont, Maine, Nebraska, Colorado and Minnesota. Hillary has won Iowa.
Here is what the 2008 general election looked like:
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Obama lost New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Michigan (he did not contest), Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Indiana, Ohio, California and Florida in the Democratic primary. He would win these states in the general election.
The argument that states you win in a primary translate to states you win in a general election is at best specious; however, there is a very real correlation between the demographics Obama won in 2008 and the ones that Hillary is winning in 2016. As far as racial demographics of voters are concerned, Hillary has become Obama of 2008 while Bernie has become Hillary of 2008 with a few exceptions.
Just for fun, here is what the 2012 general looked like:
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