Life After Death For Bernie Out West
Bernie Sanders won the states of Alaska, Hawaii and Washington in this increasingly elongated Democratic primary. Bernie won 55 delegates while Hillary won 20 delegates as Washington has a tri-tiered caucus system whose delegates are not counted until that process is complete. Where do we stand now?
Life After Death
There are 4763 total delegates in the Democratic Primary. Of those delegates, 4051 are allocated by the popular vote percentage won in each state primary, and 712 are super delegates who can vote any way they want. A total of 2382 delegates is necessary to win the primary.
Of the delegates allocated by vote percentage, Hillary has won 1243 of them with 8,924,920 votes. Bernie has won 975 delegates with 6,398,420. That is a 2,526,500 vote advantage in the popular resulting in a delegate advantage of 268.
To get to 2382 delegates as allocated by the popular vote, Sanders needs to win 1408 of the remaining 1833 delegates (77%). Hillary needs to win 1139 of the remaining 1833 delegates (62%). She’s won 1243 of the 2218 delegates awarded thus far (56%).
If she maintains her current pace, Hillary would win 1026 more delegates putting her at 2269 delegates, 113 short of the necessary 2382. Bernie has some life as Hillary’s lead dwindles slightly, though the super delegates are still the elephant in the room for Sanders supporters.
Of the 712 super delegates, 469 have already declared for Hillary Clinton while 29 have declared for Bernie Sanders. Including them brings Clinton’s current delegate count to 1712 and Bernie’s to 1004 when including delegates allocated to both candidates from Democrats abroad, American Samoa and Northern Marianas.
Including these pledged delegates would mean Hillary needs 670 of the remaining 1833 delegates allocated by the popular vote (37%). Bernie would need to win 1379 of the remaining 1833 delegates (75%).
Bernie won by the types of margins he needed to in these three states. He has to continue winning 70% of the delegates and up to gain adequate momentum to convince super delegates to change their mind and vote for him. While I think this is dubious because of how biting Bernie has been in his criticism of super delegates (though he is one), the logic is that if he has more delegates, these super delegates will forget that criticism and “listen to the will of the people.”
In order for Bernie to get to 2051 allocated delegates (which would leave Hillary at 2050) heading into the convention, Bernie needs to win 1076 of the 1833 remaining delegates (59%). These numbers do not include the results from Washington’s tri-tiered caucus which has not been completed as of yet. Bernie has life after the death that was Super Tuesday, but he’s still a very long shot to win.