I Got You: NFL Week 5 Investment
We’re now 28-32 on the season. Remember, it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports investing at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%). That is, 52.4% is the cutoff for earning profits. A noticeable return is made at 55% (5 wins and 4 losses). Our goal is 57% (4 wins and 3 losses)
It’s nice thinking about potential gains, but it’s better to be conservative and think of the potential risks. If you manage the risk, the profit will take care of itself. Selectivity is key, meaning unless we see a material edge with an investment, we will pass. Return on investment is the metric we use to evaluate the attractiveness of an investment.
Week 5 Investments
Indianapolis at Houston: Over 45
I expect a combination of turnovers and big plays for supremacy in the worst division in football. That is, if Luck and Mallett are both able to play.
Chicago at Kansas City: Chicago 355; Chicago +9
Kansas City kicked 7 field goals last week. Chicago is underestimated amidst the fire sale they are holding.
Washington at Atlanta: Washington 260; Over 48
I don’t believe in Atlanta, particularly their defense. I think both teams can score, but washington should be able to run the ball and keep the falcons off the field.
New Orleans at Philadelphia: New Orleans 185
Philadelphia is a mess and New orleans has to be gassed over that overtime win against Dallas. Drew Brees is not even on the injury report this week. Advantage New Orleans.
Buffalo at Tennessee: Over 42
Buffalo should be able to turn the rookie quarterback over, but the playbook is simple enough where he is only running what he can be successful doing. Penalties should enable scoring opportunities for tennessee’s offense as Buffalo is looking like a Rex Ryan team. Tough, but brash and undisciplined.
New England at Dallas: Dallas 325; Dallas +8.5
Dallas is a pretty bad home team, and injuries are hurting them. They have been competitive though, and New England, while usually successful coming off a bye, will be facing a desperate team.
San Francisco at New York Giants: San Francisco 245
The 49ers defense stifled Aaron Rodgers last week. Carlos Hyde and Kap’s legs should be enough.
Pittsburgh at San Diego: Pittsburgh 150; Pittsburgh +3
The Steelers should be motivated after losing a heartbreaker last Thursday night. San Diego was in a squeaker against Cleveland last week, and Michael Vick with another week of reps should be better than when we saw him last.