I Got You: NFL Week 4 Investment
8-14 last week brought us back down to earth at 23-21 for the season. Remember, it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports investing at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%). That is, 52.4% is the cutoff for earning profits. A noticeable return is made at 55% (5 wins and 4 losses). Our goal is 57% (4 wins and 3 losses)
It’s nice thinking about potential gains, but it’s better to be conservative and think of the potential risks. If you manage the risk, the profit will take care of itself. Selectivity is key, meaning unless we see a material edge with an investment, we will pass. Return on investment is the performance we use to evaluate the efficiency of an investment. The first 3 weeks, we made small investments across the market. This week, we begin to hone in on games we really like.
Week 4 Picks
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh 130; Pittsburgh +2.5; Over 43.5
My Ravens have no offense. My Ravens have no defense. The turnover machine that is Michael Vick will keep both teams in it, but the Steelers as a home underdog is too much to pass up.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Jacksonville 370; Over 48
Something is wrong with Indianapolis and something is wrong with Andrew Luck.
I said that last week, ann their “win” did nothing to dispel that sentiment.
New York Giants at Buffalo: New York 200; Under 46.5
Victor Cruz is coming back as Reuben Randle has emerged to shape Eli’s team as a ball control passing team with big play ability.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: Over 40
Two number 1 overall picks squaring up against one another. Should be fun.
Houston at Atlanta: Houston 235; Houston +6.5; Over 47
The return of Arian Foster may mean trouble for Atlanta in light of what Joseph Randle did to them last week.
Cleveland at San Diego: Cleveland 310; Cleveland +7.5
Both teams are competitive meaning the travel out west is factoring into perception here. All of the value is with Cleveland.
Green Bay at San Francisco: San Francisco 300; San Francisco +9
Kap has had his most success against the Packers in his career. It can’t get any worse than last week no?
Detroit at Seattle: Detroit 375
Can Detroit finish drives? If they can, they should give a rudderless Seattle offense a number of points that will be difficult for them to achieve.